{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dd6eb35-ee92-489c-8393-9279a4e93968", "symbol": "AUV", "name": "Auravelle Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.047, "architecture_energy": 90.328, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.506, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 21.81, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 83.87, "downward_expansion": 99.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006567, 0.007891, 0.009871, 0.011376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.013283, "distance_from_trend": -0.548306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.586252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.647059, "excess_performance": -0.710764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.548306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382453, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.625863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.647059, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3294503, "relative_activity": 0.873842, "balance": 0.118496, "dry_up": 2.80229, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.294872, "annualized_volatility": 0.964306, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013283, "fair_value_reference": 0.016429, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.378378, "median_excess_return": 0.018383, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046455, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.1875, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.168942, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.090909, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.24963, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.277913, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.105263, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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[ 0.009733, 0.010173, 0.01174, 0.012904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 20974178, "typical_volume": 3496776.0, "trend": 0.013917, "fair_value": 0.016628, "relative_strength": -55.298203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.039946, "energy": 80.216807, "activity_lines": [ 0.0087, 0.009455, 0.011167, 0.012447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 17643404, "typical_volume": 3970525.35, "trend": 0.013683, "fair_value": 0.016526, "relative_strength": -68.277727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.556588, "energy": 93.228007, "activity_lines": [ 0.007267, 0.0085, 0.010445, 0.011872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 3294503, "typical_volume": 3770133.85, "trend": 0.013283, "fair_value": 0.016429, "relative_strength": -62.586252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.047266, "energy": 90.327572, "activity_lines": [ 0.006567, 0.007891, 0.009871, 0.011376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }