{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dd77dff-aec5-4e66-aac7-9926a83e4e3e", "symbol": "XT2D", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 2x Inverse Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.84, "architecture_energy": 58.091, "architecture_maturity": 74.248, "architecture_confidence": 88.336, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.7, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 58.61, "rotation_down": 50.41, "downward_expansion": 79.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.159927, 0.161122, 0.163601, 0.170387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.1517, "trend_reference": 0.177813, "distance_from_trend": -0.146858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.261412, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.015722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196291, "excess_performance": -0.247527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053144, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196291, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.13963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2136579, "relative_activity": 0.272221, "balance": 1.13963, "dry_up": 1.438219, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041834, "annualized_volatility": 0.257864, "from_high_reference": -0.315742, "from_low_reference": 0.007304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.177813, "fair_value_reference": 0.261412, "structural_low": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.251978, "energy": 57.691424, "activity_lines": [ 0.161763, 0.161755, 0.169216, 0.175287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.16285, "volume": 11434602, "typical_volume": 8661735.05, "trend": 0.180467, "fair_value": 0.265621, "relative_strength": -19.449871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.75441, "energy": 60.201916, "activity_lines": [ 0.161967, 0.161903, 0.167755, 0.174091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1645, "volume": 13603426, "typical_volume": 8009365.1, "trend": 0.179737, "fair_value": 0.264316, "relative_strength": -19.014152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.213289, "energy": 51.840523, "activity_lines": [ 0.162727, 0.162395, 0.166582, 0.173061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1655, "volume": 17978033, "typical_volume": 8130792.35, "trend": 0.178912, "fair_value": 0.26295, "relative_strength": -18.743796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.026941, "energy": 41.86294, "activity_lines": [ 0.163587, 0.163054, 0.16566, 0.172143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1517, "volume": 2136579, "typical_volume": 7848706.1, "trend": 0.177813, "fair_value": 0.261412, "relative_strength": -25.015722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.840188, "energy": 58.090716, "activity_lines": [ 0.159927, 0.161122, 0.163601, 0.170387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }