{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de03a5a-192f-48d8-a5da-8ada324dfd0d", "symbol": "RDFI", "name": "RAREVIEW DYNAMIC FIXED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.14, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.287, "architecture_energy": 5.981, "architecture_maturity": 40.861, "architecture_confidence": 42.074, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.64, "rotation_up": 31.57, "upward_expansion": 33.6, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 34.63, "downward_expansion": 22.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.303274, 23.320983, 23.267646, 23.236336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.4483, "trend_reference": 23.263338, "distance_from_trend": 0.007951, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.988676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117188, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.425025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012092, "excess_performance": -0.137717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007951, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.83519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105000, "relative_activity": 1.519998, "balance": 1.83519, "dry_up": 1.084739, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017935, "annualized_volatility": 0.095415, "from_high_reference": -0.058951, "from_low_reference": 0.063809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.263338, "fair_value_reference": 20.988676, "structural_low": 22.041842, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008148, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.000159, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.057514, "worst_return": -0.063005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011053, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035084, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.06567, "worst_return": -0.092256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032256, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.01722, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056891, "worst_return": 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23.237047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.109727, "volume": 72355, "typical_volume": 66656.45, "trend": 23.248385, "fair_value": 20.916953, "relative_strength": -7.115287, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.52431, "energy": 12.992128, "activity_lines": [ 23.329615, 23.303565, 23.232518, 23.228505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.175269, "volume": 54243, "typical_volume": 65223.95, "trend": 23.253804, "fair_value": 20.952104, "relative_strength": -7.601705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.789395, "energy": 2.32829, "activity_lines": [ 23.263286, 23.28895, 23.237518, 23.223788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.4483, "volume": 105000, "typical_volume": 69079.05, "trend": 23.263338, "fair_value": 20.988676, "relative_strength": -9.425025, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.286654, "energy": 5.980711, "activity_lines": [ 23.303274, 23.320983, 23.267646, 23.236336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }