{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de389e0-42a9-4911-a246-ca28bcaa7fcd", "symbol": "SPEEU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored and Screened UCITS ETF UCITS ETF EUR CAP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.11, "architecture_energy": 68.701, "architecture_maturity": 90.364, "architecture_confidence": 75.677, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.05, "rotation_up": 54.24, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.48, "rotation_down": 29.24, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.566033, 18.495975, 18.216684, 17.803241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.0319, "trend_reference": 17.321677, "distance_from_trend": 0.098733, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.663343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.364092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150708, "excess_performance": 0.097396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063641, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.031803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298308, "relative_activity": 0.95477, "balance": 4.031803, "dry_up": 1.014836, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017355, "annualized_volatility": 0.11034, "from_high_reference": -0.00845, "from_low_reference": 0.26441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.321677, "fair_value_reference": 14.663343, "structural_low": 15.5889, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003872, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003423, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.055077, "worst_return": -0.084798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027602, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010748, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088975, "worst_return": -0.179994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000383, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080284, "worst_return": -0.081049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 18.2768, "volume": 202871, "typical_volume": 312558.5, "trend": 17.246087, "fair_value": 14.612826, "relative_strength": 4.848729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.585738, "energy": 54.959424, "activity_lines": [ 18.35352, 18.371033, 18.082245, 17.688027 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0319, "volume": 298308, "typical_volume": 312439.6, "trend": 17.321677, "fair_value": 14.663343, "relative_strength": 6.364092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.110455, "energy": 68.70101, "activity_lines": [ 18.566033, 18.495975, 18.216684, 17.803241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }