{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de3fe83-910a-436e-8045-90a944d4e507", "symbol": "ZEN", "name": "ZEN Corporation Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.546, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.145, "architecture_energy": 28.349, "architecture_maturity": 7.105, "architecture_confidence": 69.272, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.83, "rotation_up": 62.94, "upward_expansion": 38.47, "deceleration": 30.2, "rotation_down": 14.67, "downward_expansion": 20.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.576667, 5.500909, 5.45619, 5.482139 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 5.560826, "distance_from_trend": 0.007045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.729306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167819, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.22879, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057079, "excess_performance": -0.249404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007045, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02149, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167819, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086263, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024509, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057079, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.713656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9000, "relative_activity": 0.42796, "balance": 4.713656, "dry_up": 0.767951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03228, "annualized_volatility": 0.164586, "from_high_reference": -0.304308, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.560826, "fair_value_reference": 6.729306, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.004335, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.057079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008547, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011617, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.279661, "worst_return": -0.041231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022878, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.432203, "worst_return": -0.016436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006945, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", 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7.02652, "relative_strength": -22.147934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.331997, "energy": 31.836871, "activity_lines": [ 5.413333, 5.409091, 5.468967, 5.56356 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 5.25, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 57945.0, "trend": 5.648563, "fair_value": 6.984457, "relative_strength": -22.167361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.20883, "energy": 42.805892, "activity_lines": [ 5.36, 5.379091, 5.439454, 5.53742 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.2, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 56895.0, "trend": 5.63211, "fair_value": 6.94444, "relative_strength": -20.989155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.503956, "energy": 70.319233, "activity_lines": [ 5.296667, 5.345455, 5.407759, 5.508481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.4, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 50340.0, "trend": 5.625596, "fair_value": 6.906887, "relative_strength": -21.078474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.557024, "energy": 62.443351, "activity_lines": [ 5.31, 5.350909, 5.39863, 5.493506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.5, "volume": 38300, "typical_volume": 48490.0, "trend": 5.619144, "fair_value": 6.870567, "relative_strength": -19.735789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.653558, "energy": 33.353065, "activity_lines": [ 5.37, 5.374545, 5.401359, 5.485403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.65, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 45795.0, "trend": 5.612783, "fair_value": 6.835209, "relative_strength": -18.104295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.290028, "energy": 8.639228, "activity_lines": [ 5.473333, 5.423636, 5.420463, 5.487394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.55, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 20800.0, "trend": 5.591636, "fair_value": 6.798618, "relative_strength": -19.391719, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.568347, "energy": 19.091227, "activity_lines": [ 5.523333, 5.45, 5.430952, 5.483343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.55, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 21020.0, "trend": 5.577034, "fair_value": 6.762027, "relative_strength": -18.084083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.293152, "energy": 21.272739, "activity_lines": [ 5.553333, 5.472727, 5.44119, 5.480657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 21030.0, "trend": 5.560826, "fair_value": 6.729306, "relative_strength": -16.22879, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.144697, "energy": 28.349178, "activity_lines": [ 5.576667, 5.500909, 5.45619, 5.482139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }