{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de5ff38-2639-4c8c-a8fe-89b845536f6d", "symbol": "SUPR", "name": "Supermarket Income REIT plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.075, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.843, "architecture_energy": 35.498, "architecture_maturity": 20.537, "architecture_confidence": 71.617, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.01, "rotation_up": 51.06, "upward_expansion": 77.18, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 20.56, "downward_expansion": 3.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.864851, 0.861218, 0.848168, 0.840068 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.87, "trend_reference": 0.832262, "distance_from_trend": 0.045344, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.706535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.125263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060028, "excess_performance": 0.008793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045344, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03299, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038318, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001253, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21737312, "relative_activity": 1.271801, "balance": 0.616759, "dry_up": 1.342373, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040373, "annualized_volatility": 0.187131, "from_high_reference": -0.022472, "from_low_reference": 0.206703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.832262, "fair_value_reference": 0.706535, "structural_low": 0.759865, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.001196, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.001286, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.066627, "worst_return": -0.062345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008422, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007648, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.140376, "worst_return": -0.054782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038349, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035794, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.105714, "worst_return": -0.144181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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0.841641, 0.835438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8595, "volume": 13953597, "typical_volume": 17577275.9, "trend": 0.830161, "fair_value": 0.704887, "relative_strength": -0.881218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.757633, "energy": 37.812869, "activity_lines": [ 0.86274, 0.857904, 0.844492, 0.837498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.87, "volume": 21737312, "typical_volume": 17091752.75, "trend": 0.832262, "fair_value": 0.706535, "relative_strength": 0.125263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.842663, "energy": 35.498258, "activity_lines": [ 0.864851, 0.861218, 0.848168, 0.840068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }