{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de6e23e-81f2-463e-8f03-aa981169c489", "symbol": "4008", "name": "Saudi Company for Hardware SACO", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.452, "architecture_energy": 69.668, "architecture_maturity": 30.039, "architecture_confidence": 88.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.69, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 14.61, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 70.46, "downward_expansion": 90.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.093333, 22.529637, 23.024048, 23.466516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.57, "trend_reference": 23.979784, "distance_from_trend": -0.100492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.49271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.074088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137936, "excess_performance": -0.106106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744505, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238954, "relative_activity": 0.569071, "balance": 0.744505, "dry_up": 0.645821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051139, "annualized_volatility": 0.266193, "from_high_reference": -0.346858, "from_low_reference": 0.036447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.979784, "fair_value_reference": 30.49271, "structural_low": 20.811493, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.012346, "positive_rate": 0.463415, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.009816, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.28169, "worst_return": -0.211892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.060734, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.030789, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.513359, "worst_return": -0.214035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106447, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.070151, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.377863, "worst_return": -0.288686, "sufficient": true }, { 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-42.598274, "energy": 26.500112, "activity_lines": [ 23.318668, 23.267455, 23.836197, 24.11752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.790001, "volume": 325213, "typical_volume": 474567.1, "trend": 24.452376, "fair_value": 30.828945, "relative_strength": -11.57075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.604649, "energy": 31.792557, "activity_lines": [ 23.178001, 23.145273, 23.713211, 24.002404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.93, "volume": 373421, "typical_volume": 478939.75, "trend": 24.348326, "fair_value": 30.744486, "relative_strength": -9.982839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.368898, "energy": 34.625753, "activity_lines": [ 23.067334, 23.08491, 23.605222, 23.904186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 175009, "typical_volume": 464663.45, "trend": 24.216011, "fair_value": 30.654401, "relative_strength": -12.735686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.111448, "energy": 42.611069, "activity_lines": [ 22.784667, 22.945818, 23.436484, 23.772036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.0, "volume": 297342, "typical_volume": 425731.5, "trend": 24.089546, "fair_value": 30.571917, "relative_strength": -11.801484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.178672, "energy": 62.320241, "activity_lines": [ 22.473333, 22.769455, 23.241095, 23.629068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.57, "volume": 238954, "typical_volume": 419902.05, "trend": 23.979784, "fair_value": 30.49271, "relative_strength": -15.074088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.451548, "energy": 69.668492, "activity_lines": [ 22.093333, 22.529637, 23.024048, 23.466516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }