{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4de795e2-03e7-44a8-bd82-3d0d27e1a8de", "symbol": "VITT3", "name": "Vittia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.637, "architecture_energy": 65.538, "architecture_maturity": 65.637, "architecture_confidence": 76.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.47, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 10.41, "deceleration": 45.27, "rotation_down": 67.31, "downward_expansion": 81.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.094667, 3.186909, 3.307589, 3.42245 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 3.591879, "distance_from_trend": -0.220464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.914597, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.430269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.939845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283721, "excess_performance": -0.226672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.430269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283721, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.424041, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1356400, "relative_activity": 1.240437, "balance": 1.424041, "dry_up": 1.030649, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08022, "annualized_volatility": 0.257071, "from_high_reference": -0.402087, "from_low_reference": 0.018182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.591879, "fair_value_reference": 4.914597, "structural_low": 2.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.024275, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.142528, "worst_return": -0.203077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010944, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.065115, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.274296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054822, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058045, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.115179, "worst_return": -0.424215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -58.228792, "energy": 42.773128, "activity_lines": [ 3.314667, 3.335818, 3.431701, 3.537572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.4, "volume": 927800, "typical_volume": 1157184.0, "trend": 3.675981, "fair_value": 4.988724, "relative_strength": -18.851275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.006787, "energy": 30.944864, "activity_lines": [ 3.351333, 3.341818, 3.419108, 3.518206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 1454600, "typical_volume": 1126420.5, "trend": 3.638242, "fair_value": 4.951291, "relative_strength": -28.454932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.636227, "energy": 45.015952, "activity_lines": [ 3.252667, 3.281455, 3.372835, 3.47653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 1356400, "typical_volume": 1093486.0, "trend": 3.591879, "fair_value": 4.914597, "relative_strength": -30.939845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.636507, "energy": 65.537821, "activity_lines": [ 3.094667, 3.186909, 3.307589, 3.42245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }