{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ded156e-fe5e-4cec-b1c4-267a505bce44", "symbol": "601021", "name": "Spring Airlines Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.618, "architecture_energy": 31.406, "architecture_maturity": 55.601, "architecture_confidence": 85.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.04, "rotation_up": 21.47, "upward_expansion": 3.05, "deceleration": 56.44, "rotation_down": 48.19, "downward_expansion": 76.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.488156, 45.655541, 46.125998, 47.029967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.669998, "trend_reference": 49.125216, "distance_from_trend": -0.070335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.537897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.419986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1878, "excess_performance": -0.144596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.030016, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30875217, "relative_activity": 0.965216, "balance": 1.030016, "dry_up": 1.094696, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060341, "annualized_volatility": 0.251726, "from_high_reference": -0.244874, "from_low_reference": 0.060121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.125216, "fair_value_reference": 52.537897, "structural_low": 43.080002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.027313, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009332, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.140866, "worst_return": -0.14243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033612, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.020564, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.232357, "worst_return": -0.105488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05055, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.002074, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.197599, "worst_return": -0.156728, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.214713, "energy": 37.606752, "activity_lines": [ 45.758143, 46.036209, 46.476906, 47.903245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.136612, "volume": 37854028, "typical_volume": 33606400.8, "trend": 49.918883, "fair_value": 52.697691, "relative_strength": -11.381944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.318703, "energy": 43.869408, "activity_lines": [ 45.148355, 45.661596, 46.214679, 47.505135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.470001, "volume": 37286998, "typical_volume": 32328955.0, "trend": 49.586216, "fair_value": 52.617359, "relative_strength": -6.691146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.178167, "energy": 34.541522, "activity_lines": [ 45.424589, 45.73166, 46.204315, 47.282626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.669998, "volume": 30875217, "typical_volume": 31987870.2, "trend": 49.125216, "fair_value": 52.537897, "relative_strength": -10.419986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.61846, "energy": 31.406199, "activity_lines": [ 45.488156, 45.655541, 46.125998, 47.029967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }