{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4df7d641-ff98-4b39-84eb-ca962079be01", "symbol": "PUI", "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT UTILITIES MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.212, "architecture_energy": 39.242, "architecture_maturity": 22.296, "architecture_confidence": 70.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.89, "rotation_up": 23.59, "upward_expansion": 18.9, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 57.38, "downward_expansion": 51.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.078313, 46.536119, 46.737075, 46.822831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.3368, "trend_reference": 46.676678, "distance_from_trend": -0.028706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.81662, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.513133, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009138, "excess_performance": -0.178315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017536, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073343, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009138, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.151127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14274, "relative_activity": 0.175742, "balance": 0.151127, "dry_up": 0.227594, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029036, "annualized_volatility": 0.165684, "from_high_reference": -0.073057, "from_low_reference": 0.080181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.676678, "fair_value_reference": 38.81662, "structural_low": 44.697727, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008093, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007079, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081181, "worst_return": -0.065012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.005394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093961, "worst_return": -0.120519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094398, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.199226, "worst_return": -0.05777, "sufficient": true }, 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17800, "typical_volume": 84731.3, "trend": 46.554605, "fair_value": 38.622033, "relative_strength": -5.249953, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.776094, "energy": 20.374847, "activity_lines": [ 47.16058, 47.044521, 47.038564, 46.969127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.5589, "volume": 27808, "typical_volume": 84148.35, "trend": 46.608688, "fair_value": 38.720806, "relative_strength": -8.98657, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.959715, "energy": 17.325788, "activity_lines": [ 46.569927, 46.792972, 46.894181, 46.904888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.3368, "volume": 14274, "typical_volume": 81221.45, "trend": 46.676678, "fair_value": 38.81662, "relative_strength": -13.513133, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.211745, "energy": 39.241989, "activity_lines": [ 46.078313, 46.536119, 46.737075, 46.822831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }