{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4df94284-1220-420e-a52a-fb738f3845e7", "symbol": "RAD", "name": "Radiopharm Theranostics Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.173, "architecture_energy": 88.196, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.985, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.84, "rotation_up": 8.5, "upward_expansion": 19.1, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 81.01, "downward_expansion": 92.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.015467, 0.017236, 0.018533, 0.019234 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.020217, "distance_from_trend": -0.40643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.038366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.687221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.395005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.492277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.40643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.687221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.50395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44898437, "relative_activity": 3.122674, "balance": 0.125467, "dry_up": 2.307854, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185897, "annualized_volatility": 0.577865, "from_high_reference": -0.7, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020217, "fair_value_reference": 0.038366, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.01736, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.029088, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.318677, "worst_return": -0.322581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067619, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.063849, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.228571, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.290127, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.520548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.021283, "fair_value": 0.039785, "relative_strength": -14.82688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.255003, "energy": 30.442313, "activity_lines": [ 0.0196, 0.019764, 0.019969, 0.020392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 4521583, "typical_volume": 9850428.1, "trend": 0.021017, "fair_value": 0.039307, "relative_strength": -18.574282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.461831, "energy": 29.963352, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.019582, 0.019852, 0.020245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 74922698, "typical_volume": 12603764.15, "trend": 0.02065, "fair_value": 0.038828, "relative_strength": -40.900755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.638266, "energy": 72.330022, "activity_lines": [ 0.0176, 0.018527, 0.019269, 0.019792 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 44898437, "typical_volume": 14378203.7, "trend": 0.020217, "fair_value": 0.038366, "relative_strength": -50.395005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.173222, "energy": 88.19551, "activity_lines": [ 0.015467, 0.017236, 0.018533, 0.019234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }