{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dfa9c09-41c9-47e1-b28d-824cd07172c3", "symbol": "RARE", "name": "Ultragenyx", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.736, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.393, "architecture_energy": 25.103, "architecture_maturity": 60.967, "architecture_confidence": 76.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.26, "rotation_up": 24.75, "upward_expansion": 57.24, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 37.39, "downward_expansion": 20.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.818, 28.176909, 27.012476, 25.888495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.91, "trend_reference": 24.686, "distance_from_trend": 0.049583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.598333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.939111, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048988, "excess_performance": -0.138466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048988, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.830941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12600549, "relative_activity": 1.236772, "balance": 1.830941, "dry_up": 0.933249, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13486, "annualized_volatility": 0.612688, "from_high_reference": -0.350462, "from_low_reference": 0.416621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.686, "fair_value_reference": 37.598333, "structural_low": 18.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061053, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.096026, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.081318, "worst_return": -0.204586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.124759, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.137548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.223227, "worst_return": -0.289015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070618, "worst_return": -0.365624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.340767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.193672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047034, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023131, 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"fair_value": 37.850769, "relative_strength": -5.106837, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.883815, "energy": 83.446088, "activity_lines": [ 31.404667, 29.053818, 26.835095, 25.640344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.9, "volume": 8461545, "typical_volume": 10131289.8, "trend": 24.529, "fair_value": 37.746859, "relative_strength": -11.053706, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.493168, "energy": 64.913972, "activity_lines": [ 30.052667, 28.974364, 27.012429, 25.777634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.91, "volume": 10155479, "typical_volume": 10093897.0, "trend": 24.572667, "fair_value": 37.665064, "relative_strength": -17.533888, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.535998, "energy": 24.50188, "activity_lines": [ 28.073333, 28.498545, 26.973333, 25.802215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.91, "volume": 12600549, "typical_volume": 10188252.55, "trend": 24.686, "fair_value": 37.598333, "relative_strength": -17.939111, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.392829, "energy": 25.103451, "activity_lines": [ 26.818, 28.176909, 27.012476, 25.888495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }