{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dfcb7fc-0cd0-407f-8dfe-9086ca4ad653", "symbol": "ZWS", "name": "BMO US High Dividend Covered Call Hedged to CAD ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.418, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.877, "architecture_energy": 35.405, "architecture_maturity": 41.084, "architecture_confidence": 53.036, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.23, "rotation_up": 38.86, "upward_expansion": 68.25, "deceleration": 72.78, "rotation_down": 26.92, "downward_expansion": 8.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.892678, 21.866523, 21.832222, 21.63493 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.059999, "trend_reference": 21.399555, "distance_from_trend": 0.030863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.896562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.64188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027498, "excess_performance": -0.092923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002903, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.208791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10200, "relative_activity": 1.009901, "balance": 3.208791, "dry_up": 1.061881, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015589, "annualized_volatility": 0.08775, "from_high_reference": -0.021809, "from_low_reference": 0.160266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.399555, "fair_value_reference": 18.896562, "structural_low": 20.175209, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000105, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.00422, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.050373, "worst_return": -0.056028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001728, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.008032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078415, "worst_return": -0.048334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018098, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.07815, "worst_return": -0.17066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"fair_value": 18.8296, "relative_strength": -3.923891, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.577199, "energy": 26.855993, "activity_lines": [ 21.824197, 21.886357, 21.757302, 21.561453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.74, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 10685.0, "trend": 21.353574, "fair_value": 18.862355, "relative_strength": -4.191615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.110853, "energy": 23.532001, "activity_lines": [ 21.809392, 21.843476, 21.782077, 21.589354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.059999, "volume": 10200, "typical_volume": 10100.0, "trend": 21.399555, "fair_value": 18.896562, "relative_strength": -5.64188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.877137, "energy": 35.40467, "activity_lines": [ 21.892678, 21.866523, 21.832222, 21.63493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }