{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e001661-da7e-4af7-9e3f-29678c555976", "symbol": "EEMX", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR MSCI EMERGING MARKETS FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES FREE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.454, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.894, "architecture_energy": 17.292, "architecture_maturity": 60.544, "architecture_confidence": 88.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.2, "rotation_up": 21.91, "upward_expansion": 47.5, "deceleration": 84.86, "rotation_down": 36.28, "downward_expansion": 27.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.972953, 51.592482, 51.601426, 50.489572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.0559, "trend_reference": 49.092041, "distance_from_trend": 0.060374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.088467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.904523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111147, "excess_performance": -0.014478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071847, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019045, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.106502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167799, "relative_activity": 4.987961, "balance": 2.106502, "dry_up": 1.596358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053695, "annualized_volatility": 0.290214, "from_high_reference": -0.076696, "from_low_reference": 0.383384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.092041, "fair_value_reference": 36.088467, "structural_low": 42.428341, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015762, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157225, "worst_return": -0.047981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042796, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.031849, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.239002, "worst_return": -0.004407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.107909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207391, "worst_return": 0.013336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.489224, "energy": 20.179537, "activity_lines": [ 50.95696, 51.941482, 51.36051, 50.159253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.509, "volume": 13664, "typical_volume": 27171.7, "trend": 48.837619, "fair_value": 35.936027, "relative_strength": 2.569093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.799983, "energy": 18.922108, "activity_lines": [ 50.619613, 51.617139, 51.422173, 50.281941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.0559, "volume": 167799, "typical_volume": 33640.8, "trend": 49.092041, "fair_value": 36.088467, "relative_strength": 1.904523, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.89422, "energy": 17.291897, "activity_lines": [ 50.972953, 51.592482, 51.601426, 50.489572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }