{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e06fc81-7902-4e05-bb22-58c158f4af10", "symbol": "TKO", "name": "TKO Group Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.552, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.658, "architecture_energy": 55.942, "architecture_maturity": 7.889, "architecture_confidence": 85.151, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.57, "rotation_up": 10.18, "upward_expansion": 11.58, "deceleration": 38.34, "rotation_down": 68.06, "downward_expansion": 87.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 183.770667, 188.889878, 191.722794, 193.234399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 186.56, "trend_reference": 196.092277, "distance_from_trend": -0.048611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 143.850428, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.769489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112677, "excess_performance": -0.238301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03979, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112677, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.062047, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7415669, "relative_activity": 1.09119, "balance": 1.062047, "dry_up": 0.809259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07725, "annualized_volatility": 0.327509, "from_high_reference": -0.171482, "from_low_reference": 0.155075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 196.092277, "fair_value_reference": 143.850428, 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194.62912, 196.020028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.62, "volume": 3942641, "typical_volume": 6966866.3, "trend": 197.260101, "fair_value": 143.312633, "relative_strength": -13.858854, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.248895, "energy": 43.228921, "activity_lines": [ 186.769333, 193.009757, 193.351123, 194.870931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 181.81, "volume": 4464593, "typical_volume": 6752495.0, "trend": 196.476137, "fair_value": 143.567583, "relative_strength": -14.104259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.573398, "energy": 57.941637, "activity_lines": [ 183.342667, 190.436718, 192.283994, 193.87415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.56, "volume": 7415669, "typical_volume": 6795947.4, "trend": 196.092277, "fair_value": 143.850428, "relative_strength": -14.769489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.658089, "energy": 55.942103, "activity_lines": [ 183.770667, 188.889878, 191.722794, 193.234399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }