{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e07fb86-17dc-4c56-a3f9-a5a04294da19", "symbol": "CRP", "name": "Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.082, "architecture_energy": 96.798, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.257, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.95, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 89.79, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0418, 0.047673, 0.054729, 0.056372 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.058367, "distance_from_trend": -0.348943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.096276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.6053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.770883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366667, "excess_performance": -0.39494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.348943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.6053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320284, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.427709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.007347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.007347, "dry_up": 0.750811, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095142, "annualized_volatility": 0.702516, "from_high_reference": -0.604167, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.058367, "fair_value_reference": 0.096276, "structural_low": 0.038, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.024343, "positive_rate": 0.305556, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.027483, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.758242, "worst_return": -0.29078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002928, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.40404, "worst_return": -0.36129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.100802, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.175182, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.05, "volume": 41111, "typical_volume": 127311.35, "trend": 0.060433, "fair_value": 0.098635, "relative_strength": -27.203379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.234914, "energy": 83.140721, "activity_lines": [ 0.053267, 0.057636, 0.059986, 0.060146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.045, "volume": 226686, "typical_volume": 136274.9, "trend": 0.059933, "fair_value": 0.097853, "relative_strength": -33.9258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.794522, "energy": 93.616936, "activity_lines": [ 0.0498, 0.054636, 0.058586, 0.059151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.038, "volume": 157666, "typical_volume": 142709.3, "trend": 0.059133, "fair_value": 0.097058, "relative_strength": -43.130204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.999599, "energy": 98.758468, "activity_lines": [ 0.0452, 0.050873, 0.0566, 0.057735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 141667.75, "trend": 0.058367, "fair_value": 0.096276, "relative_strength": -42.770883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.082176, "energy": 96.7979, "activity_lines": [ 0.0418, 0.047673, 0.054729, 0.056372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }