{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e099c06-325e-4bcd-95aa-af89147d25f5", "symbol": "HOOD", "name": "Robinhood Markets, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.102, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.985, "architecture_energy": 24.533, "architecture_maturity": 60.545, "architecture_confidence": 73.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.51, "rotation_up": 25.64, "upward_expansion": 57.68, "deceleration": 88.19, "rotation_down": 35.35, "downward_expansion": 21.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1632.602669, 1702.065279, 1619.156336, 1549.758797 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1600.0, "trend_reference": 1510.123336, "distance_from_trend": 0.059516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1020.643529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.567638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.221642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135042, "excess_performance": 0.189708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.567638, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15553, "relative_activity": 0.734231, "balance": 0.977813, "dry_up": 1.088376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129274, "annualized_volatility": 0.745064, "from_high_reference": -0.434627, "from_low_reference": 0.367521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1510.123336, "fair_value_reference": 1020.643529, "structural_low": 1170.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.147746, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.157206, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.513514, "worst_return": -0.087919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.608108, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.620625, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.817507, "worst_return": -0.107545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.633613, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.747604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.562246, "worst_return": 0.616348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.265905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.735594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.343622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.961475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", 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1515.193763, 1505.244711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1959.0, "volume": 12729, "typical_volume": 19439.85, "trend": 1575.040336, "fair_value": 984.174234, "relative_strength": 1.490007, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.881196, "energy": 73.522943, "activity_lines": [ 1865.145345, 1723.620734, 1565.600382, 1529.446948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1750.0, "volume": 25782, "typical_volume": 20158.5, "trend": 1559.889669, "fair_value": 993.989619, "relative_strength": -8.876233, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.648369, "energy": 61.537817, "activity_lines": [ 1844.724007, 1750.024552, 1592.964144, 1540.734668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1650.0, "volume": 9057, "typical_volume": 20147.05, "trend": 1544.123002, "fair_value": 1003.27167, "relative_strength": -13.232086, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.605511, "energy": 47.719557, "activity_lines": [ 1781.769336, 1750.228369, 1608.627906, 1546.548238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1520.01001, "volume": 41827, "typical_volume": 20943.4, "trend": 1526.123336, "fair_value": 1011.701221, "relative_strength": -20.165884, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.223166, "energy": 25.570338, "activity_lines": [ 1688.203337, 1721.125098, 1610.592622, 1544.992561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1600.0, "volume": 15553, "typical_volume": 21182.7, "trend": 1510.123336, "fair_value": 1020.643529, "relative_strength": -15.221642, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.984819, "energy": 24.532897, "activity_lines": [ 1632.602669, 1702.065279, 1619.156336, 1549.758797 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }