{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e0ef045-e22e-4f86-afc6-de75b61225f0", "symbol": "CRNO-B", "name": "Cereno Scientific AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.322, "architecture_energy": 41.509, "architecture_maturity": 97.01, "architecture_confidence": 94.987, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.19, "rotation_up": 19.84, "upward_expansion": 5.23, "deceleration": 50.97, "rotation_down": 52.14, "downward_expansion": 76.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.816933, 4.937345, 5.21959, 5.502966 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.848, "trend_reference": 5.871767, "distance_from_trend": -0.174354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.986615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.759127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279108, "excess_performance": -0.340602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.685498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1873401, "relative_activity": 0.68747, "balance": 0.685498, "dry_up": 0.899352, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147531, "annualized_volatility": 0.706937, "from_high_reference": -0.563243, "from_low_reference": 0.11963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.871767, "fair_value_reference": 5.986615, "structural_low": 4.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.023105, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": 0.012375, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.460251, "worst_return": -0.657619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.126486, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.190355, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 3.618321, "worst_return": -0.713034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000542, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.852941, "worst_return": -0.340102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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73.487612, "activity_lines": [ 4.866267, 5.106164, 5.455471, 5.723256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.948, "volume": 2927026, "typical_volume": 2840155.75, "trend": 6.010467, "fair_value": 5.934526, "relative_strength": -36.433341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.7926, "energy": 59.620736, "activity_lines": [ 4.823867, 5.051782, 5.379014, 5.649867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.826, "volume": 1819300, "typical_volume": 2771397.75, "trend": 5.9405, "fair_value": 5.960885, "relative_strength": -37.83234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.888194, "energy": 50.077156, "activity_lines": [ 4.8176, 4.983164, 5.295924, 5.573449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.848, "volume": 1873401, "typical_volume": 2725064.4, "trend": 5.871767, "fair_value": 5.986615, "relative_strength": -37.759127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.322093, "energy": 41.508969, "activity_lines": [ 4.816933, 4.937345, 5.21959, 5.502966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }