{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e13c57c-b4d4-4912-a850-3fae45ef23e3", "symbol": "XDUK", "name": "Xtrackers FTSE 100 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.026, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.815, "architecture_energy": 87.833, "architecture_maturity": 36.355, "architecture_confidence": 73.446, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.39, "rotation_up": 81.7, "upward_expansion": 95.7, "deceleration": 41.95, "rotation_down": 9.3, "downward_expansion": 20.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 1735.52, 1716.996364, 1694.697618, 1681.582153 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1756.2, "trend_reference": 1665.536672, "distance_from_trend": 0.054435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1354.326348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296733, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.568893, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072292, "excess_performance": 0.021057, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015689, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072292, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.771268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8188, "relative_activity": 0.208674, "balance": 1.771268, "dry_up": 0.810668, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016192, "annualized_volatility": 0.149339, "from_high_reference": -0.004984, "from_low_reference": 0.231912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1665.536672, "fair_value_reference": 1354.326348, "structural_low": 1540.531982, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.007571, "positive_rate": 0.659091, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": 0.002944, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.072673, "worst_return": -0.081696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.031788, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.010234, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.122043, "worst_return": -0.051037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073694, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.020942, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.125439, "worst_return": -0.014036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 1.409774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.867737, "energy": 74.188675, "activity_lines": [ 1706.893333, 1694.610909, 1678.631428, 1669.440649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1747.0, "volume": 24674, "typical_volume": 41373.45, "trend": 1660.400005, "fair_value": 1350.096861, "relative_strength": 1.400975, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.29048, "energy": 78.122182, "activity_lines": [ 1721.66, 1705.6, 1686.501428, 1675.401509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1756.2, "volume": 8188, "typical_volume": 39238.3, "trend": 1665.536672, "fair_value": 1354.326348, "relative_strength": 1.568893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.814509, "energy": 87.833341, "activity_lines": [ 1735.52, 1716.996364, 1694.697618, 1681.582153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }