{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e161e0d-83c7-4cc1-9124-5ac66a09bb1e", "symbol": "PETR4", "name": "Petr\u00f3leo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.943, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.764, "architecture_energy": 19.446, "architecture_maturity": 63.013, "architecture_confidence": 43.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.11, "rotation_up": 51.63, "upward_expansion": 33.86, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 16.93, "downward_expansion": 22.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.740667, 40.809091, 41.673193, 42.109208 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.869999, "trend_reference": 41.478535, "distance_from_trend": -0.014671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.463957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.114292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130384, "excess_performance": 0.187432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091143, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 228572600, "relative_activity": 1.337919, "balance": 0.600347, "dry_up": 1.002326, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046974, "annualized_volatility": 0.302014, "from_high_reference": -0.168958, "from_low_reference": 0.46962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.478535, "fair_value_reference": 31.463957, "structural_low": 36.037477, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035634, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037925, "worst_return": -0.054419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013352, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034809, "worst_return": -0.008105, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.098468, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181679, "worst_return": 0.015257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078148, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010697, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.470917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030769, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.121155, "volume": 292970200, "typical_volume": 292370765.0, "trend": 16.627743, "fair_value": 11.438352, "relative_strength": 26.965359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"close": 40.900002, "volume": 154024000, "typical_volume": 196507025.0, "trend": 40.268116, "fair_value": 31.041023, "relative_strength": 9.037567, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.572349, "energy": 47.356022, "activity_lines": [ 39.518001, 39.939117, 41.994427, 41.822486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.209999, "volume": 158320700, "typical_volume": 185974960.0, "trend": 40.675116, "fair_value": 31.183768, "relative_strength": 12.132496, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.924546, "energy": 15.570635, "activity_lines": [ 40.544001, 40.204626, 41.892411, 41.947769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.42, "volume": 144039800, "typical_volume": 174891465.0, "trend": 41.112584, "fair_value": 31.333238, "relative_strength": 12.617397, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.890795, "energy": 20.982472, "activity_lines": [ 41.746, 40.73573, 41.902688, 42.124858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.869999, "volume": 228572600, "typical_volume": 170841840.0, "trend": 41.478535, "fair_value": 31.463957, "relative_strength": 9.114292, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.764429, "energy": 19.44625, "activity_lines": [ 41.740667, 40.809091, 41.673193, 42.109208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }