{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e1a6c6d-a9b7-4994-8b4a-0b7d15281a05", "symbol": "CVRX", "name": "CVRx Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.188, "architecture_energy": 82.782, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 12.68, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 37.65, "rotation_down": 74.89, "downward_expansion": 90.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.674091, 5.345238, 5.91243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.39, "trend_reference": 6.390333, "distance_from_trend": -0.625998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.481571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.79184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.794002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.635115, "excess_performance": -0.822568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.625998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.79184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.71794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.454805, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.635115, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.155247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15599474, "relative_activity": 7.327563, "balance": 0.155247, "dry_up": 2.252545, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.464286, "annualized_volatility": 1.383869, "from_high_reference": -0.788496, "from_low_reference": 0.03913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.390333, "fair_value_reference": 11.481571, "structural_low": 2.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.050179, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.058207, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.521212, "worst_return": -0.334681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.278992, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.182494, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.81733, "worst_return": -0.049057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.281761, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.134801, "worst_return": 0.129725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.461169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049057, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.236188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", 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-58.302823, "energy": 39.388662, "activity_lines": [ 5.470667, 5.504909, 6.233976, 6.530763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.91, "volume": 1516070, "typical_volume": 1413820.2, "trend": 6.7345, "fair_value": 11.742436, "relative_strength": -41.970904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.11966, "energy": 41.361693, "activity_lines": [ 5.316, 5.365636, 6.046762, 6.406344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.74, "volume": 1146219, "typical_volume": 1402004.45, "trend": 6.645167, "fair_value": 11.658974, "relative_strength": -42.355959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.043989, "energy": 50.312046, "activity_lines": [ 5.112667, 5.230364, 5.858833, 6.277667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.175, "volume": 919798, "typical_volume": 1397089.85, "trend": 6.581, "fair_value": 11.57875, "relative_strength": -36.784886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.196675, "energy": 54.321498, "activity_lines": [ 5.068333, 5.196909, 5.729048, 6.182817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.39, "volume": 15599474, "typical_volume": 2128876.1, "trend": 6.390333, "fair_value": 11.481571, "relative_strength": -71.794002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.188171, "energy": 82.782444, "activity_lines": [ 4.141333, 4.674091, 5.345238, 5.91243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }