{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e1a874c-85d9-4556-9063-9aac986cc567", "symbol": "KQQQ", "name": "Kurv Technology Titans Select ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.576, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.521, "architecture_energy": 19.45, "architecture_maturity": 63.279, "architecture_confidence": 80.481, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.36, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 50.77, "deceleration": 81.89, "rotation_down": 28.39, "downward_expansion": 24.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.854778, 29.049116, 29.113108, 28.308347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.5536, "trend_reference": 27.328925, "distance_from_trend": 0.081404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.970793, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.137689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.168596, "excess_performance": -0.018858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081404, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2329, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.168596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.189154, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160133, "relative_activity": 0.682456, "balance": 1.189154, "dry_up": 0.926871, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047849, "annualized_volatility": 0.243363, "from_high_reference": -0.060758, "from_low_reference": 0.308132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.328925, "fair_value_reference": 23.970793, "structural_low": 22.592209, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006768, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00335, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006768, "worst_return": -0.006768, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009407, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05577, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": 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"energy": 21.812576, "activity_lines": [ 28.7626, 29.216599, 28.932438, 28.071988 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.478, "volume": 268611, "typical_volume": 236188.5, "trend": 27.223276, "fair_value": 23.918125, "relative_strength": -2.025074, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.412117, "energy": 19.78217, "activity_lines": [ 28.613011, 29.020416, 28.980969, 28.158003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.5536, "volume": 160133, "typical_volume": 234642.4, "trend": 27.328925, "fair_value": 23.970793, "relative_strength": -3.137689, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.520836, "energy": 19.450374, "activity_lines": [ 28.854778, 29.049116, 29.113108, 28.308347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }