{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e1b0501-805c-42a8-b1f8-0ddb08624777", "symbol": "BASN", "name": "BASF SE", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.5, "architecture_energy": 85.125, "architecture_maturity": 34.128, "architecture_confidence": 93.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.0, "rotation_up": 45.8, "upward_expansion": 75.5, "deceleration": 50.0, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1034.160034, 1021.908731, 999.630499 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1034.160034, "trend_reference": 971.861658, "distance_from_trend": 0.064102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 884.769917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.591443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12596, "excess_performance": 0.180626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009797, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05831, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000444, "annualized_volatility": 0.156374, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.12596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 971.861658, "fair_value_reference": 884.769917, "structural_low": 918.469971, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002977, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018994, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.11946, "worst_return": -0.067718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12596, "worst_return": -0.10173, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088636, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116042, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.040491, "worst_return": -0.167155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.294942, 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"green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037852, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-06-19", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 944.86731, "fair_value": 877.056998, "relative_strength": 4.824878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.115756, "energy": 69.886734, "activity_lines": [ 1033.762028, 1019.911093, 982.748368, 964.529465 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 948.723645, "fair_value": 878.163518, "relative_strength": 5.65883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.653848, "energy": 69.002158, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1026.547101, 989.995421, 970.290286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 952.579981, "fair_value": 879.270037, "relative_strength": 5.978469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.279272, "energy": 68.435171, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1031.079654, 996.691568, 975.802311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 956.436316, "fair_value": 880.376556, "relative_strength": 6.973682, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.867507, "energy": 67.777806, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1033.508751, 1002.836811, 981.065541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 960.292651, "fair_value": 881.483075, "relative_strength": 6.86525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.352135, "energy": 66.868938, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1033.834393, 1008.431149, 986.079974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 964.148987, "fair_value": 882.589595, "relative_strength": 7.332375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.705131, "energy": 65.642101, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1034.051487, 1013.474581, 990.845612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 968.005322, "fair_value": 883.696114, "relative_strength": 6.542163, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.442335, "energy": 62.566753, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1034.160034, 1017.967109, 995.362453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1034.160034, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 345.0, "trend": 971.861658, "fair_value": 884.769917, "relative_strength": 6.591443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.5, "energy": 85.125, "activity_lines": [ 1034.160034, 1034.160034, 1021.908731, 999.630499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }