{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e1d4b15-26f6-4a95-a4bc-6c10913abf9c", "symbol": "SC0R", "name": "Invesco STOXX Europe 600 Optimised Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.181, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.723, "architecture_energy": 26.734, "architecture_maturity": 55.705, "architecture_confidence": 85.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.83, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 63.3, "deceleration": 90.7, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 17.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 284.749996, 287.691817, 281.089523, 275.18 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 285.799988, "trend_reference": 270.146667, "distance_from_trend": 0.057944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 248.293845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151055, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.741747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041735, "excess_performance": -0.022905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041735, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.599874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 888, "relative_activity": 0.99955, "balance": 3.599874, "dry_up": 0.549865, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032002, "annualized_volatility": 0.207819, "from_high_reference": -0.050814, "from_low_reference": 0.212301 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 270.146667, "fair_value_reference": 248.293845, "structural_low": 235.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010812, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.110604, "worst_return": -0.066386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020192, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030546, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.124544, "worst_return": -0.128476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039373, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.068873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129359, "worst_return": -0.082064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095992, "active": false 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265.221814, 261.210237, 262.733333 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 287.350006, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 1103.0, "trend": 265.205, "fair_value": 245.104101, "relative_strength": 6.107932, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.44576, "energy": 59.126258, "activity_lines": [ 277.196663, 269.760906, 263.671904, 264.223226 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 289.600006, "volume": 1321, "typical_volume": 1112.7, "trend": 266.248334, "fair_value": 245.506024, "relative_strength": 5.25013, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.137743, "energy": 69.465244, "activity_lines": [ 283.016667, 274.05909, 266.269524, 265.797097 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 298.25, "volume": 359, "typical_volume": 1125.75, "trend": 267.306668, "fair_value": 245.92814, "relative_strength": 9.517502, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", 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"relative_strength": 4.147319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.808186, "energy": 77.174425, "activity_lines": [ 292.493337, 288.624547, 277.21262, 272.566237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 280.799988, "volume": 790, "typical_volume": 985.95, "trend": 269.711667, "fair_value": 247.523012, "relative_strength": 1.073765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.103609, "energy": 49.389866, "activity_lines": [ 288.373332, 288.288181, 278.411904, 273.29 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 283.100006, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 914.2, "trend": 269.893334, "fair_value": 247.89096, "relative_strength": -0.138163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.661475, "energy": 34.176914, "activity_lines": [ 285.606667, 287.894546, 279.704762, 274.153764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 285.799988, "volume": 888, "typical_volume": 888.4, "trend": 270.146667, "fair_value": 248.293845, "relative_strength": -1.741747, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.722801, "energy": 26.734155, "activity_lines": [ 284.749996, 287.691817, 281.089523, 275.18 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }