{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e1df0d9-b14f-4b4d-befb-bea48106692a", "symbol": "BMW", "name": "Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.588, "architecture_energy": 64.582, "architecture_maturity": 73.5, "architecture_confidence": 91.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.3, "rotation_down": 56.71, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.686666, 59.395636, 64.340419, 67.825926 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.279999, "trend_reference": 72.55408, "distance_from_trend": -0.182954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 76.884048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228969, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.075908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2907, "excess_performance": -0.464947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105073, "read": "Falling" 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56.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.021438, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.013359, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.141381, "worst_return": -0.138881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016993, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.087055, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.058831, "worst_return": -0.265516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001567, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.036124, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.129479, "worst_return": -0.128907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-40.000369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.549678, "energy": 84.637213, "activity_lines": [ 58.310666, 60.843272, 66.254425, 69.723376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.34, "volume": 4184, "typical_volume": 1346.95, "trend": 73.487461, "fair_value": 77.045826, "relative_strength": -36.871314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.380902, "energy": 66.198874, "activity_lines": [ 58.518666, 59.987272, 65.258603, 68.742537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.279999, "volume": 1059, "typical_volume": 1390.75, "trend": 72.55408, "fair_value": 76.884048, "relative_strength": -38.075908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.588235, "energy": 64.581669, "activity_lines": [ 58.686666, 59.395636, 64.340419, 67.825926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }