{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e22fb10-d809-49b9-af2b-5a005be2b0f8", "symbol": "LNZ", "name": "Lenzing Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.858, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.094, "architecture_energy": 7.336, "architecture_maturity": 45.687, "architecture_confidence": 41.699, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.21, "rotation_up": 24.34, "upward_expansion": 26.63, "deceleration": 62.89, "rotation_down": 40.63, "downward_expansion": 26.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.26, 24.693636, 24.538571, 24.392473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.700001, "trend_reference": 24.496666, "distance_from_trend": -0.032521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.030769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.696208, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141304, "excess_performance": -0.315551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026468, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051267, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 430735, "relative_activity": 1.805144, "balance": 0.812826, "dry_up": 1.708809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103895, "annualized_volatility": 0.527569, "from_high_reference": -0.204698, "from_low_reference": 0.227979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.496666, "fair_value_reference": 29.030769, "structural_low": 19.299999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.036714, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.172485, "worst_return": -0.115768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.062278, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.099903, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.07265, "worst_return": -0.219643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085576, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.15809, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.090069, 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.306306, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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"close": 25.6, "volume": 191598, "typical_volume": 244698.65, "trend": 24.431666, "fair_value": 29.409936, "relative_strength": -13.804408, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.995672, "energy": 26.072634, "activity_lines": [ 25.346666, 25.057272, 24.544762, 24.460645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.1, "volume": 174647, "typical_volume": 229345.5, "trend": 24.518333, "fair_value": 29.276923, "relative_strength": -16.02747, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.781837, "energy": 13.933579, "activity_lines": [ 25.133333, 25.117272, 24.645952, 24.503763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.6, "volume": 834012, "typical_volume": 253481.2, "trend": 24.506666, "fair_value": 29.152885, "relative_strength": -20.49189, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.87451, "energy": 5.126787, "activity_lines": [ 24.65, 24.885454, 24.59119, 24.444516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.700001, "volume": 430735, "typical_volume": 238615.35, "trend": 24.496666, "fair_value": 29.030769, "relative_strength": -21.696208, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.094176, "energy": 7.336471, "activity_lines": [ 24.26, 24.693636, 24.538571, 24.392473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }