{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e2679c7-a50b-48e6-a761-ae19dccb08cc", "symbol": "KSB", "name": "KSB SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.992, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.032, "architecture_energy": 13.303, "architecture_maturity": 15.847, "architecture_confidence": 75.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.28, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 23.34, "deceleration": 48.56, "rotation_down": 19.75, "downward_expansion": 45.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 939.6, 929.563636, 921.921832, 946.339105 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 942.0, "trend_reference": 975.643809, "distance_from_trend": -0.034484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 752.935525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.49461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109975, "excess_performance": -0.174615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109975, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.513952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 899, "relative_activity": 1.064598, "balance": 1.513952, "dry_up": 0.552135, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060428, "annualized_volatility": 0.51009, "from_high_reference": -0.276024, "from_low_reference": 0.154914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 975.643809, "fair_value_reference": 752.935525, "structural_low": 826.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014302, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": 0.00304, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.185185, "worst_return": -0.15812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023744, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035237, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.345153, "worst_return": -0.16727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098505, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.04897, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.404087, "worst_return": -0.118466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -35.886864, "energy": 20.083999, "activity_lines": [ 920.133333, 904.909091, 928.378856, 956.154732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 934.0, "volume": 288, "typical_volume": 956.9, "trend": 976.478786, "fair_value": 746.01733, "relative_strength": -4.10447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.592238, "energy": 21.279521, "activity_lines": [ 929.6, 912.036364, 925.144892, 953.407668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 932.0, "volume": 531, "typical_volume": 949.7, "trend": 976.473242, "fair_value": 748.25279, "relative_strength": -5.21261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.249338, "energy": 18.656389, "activity_lines": [ 932.666667, 917.636364, 922.590249, 950.538069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 946.0, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 896.9, "trend": 976.610695, "fair_value": 750.491043, "relative_strength": -5.741856, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.086544, "energy": 14.312008, "activity_lines": [ 937.066667, 924.545455, 921.878355, 948.572053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 942.0, "volume": 899, "typical_volume": 844.45, "trend": 975.643809, "fair_value": 752.935525, "relative_strength": -8.49461, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.031539, "energy": 13.303221, "activity_lines": [ 939.6, 929.563636, 921.921832, 946.339105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }