{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4e29e58c-9c50-423d-8853-c164a7bf6499",
    "symbol": "UBCP",
    "name": "United Bancorp Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 91.183,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.075,
    "architecture_energy": 16.524,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.16,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.71,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.53,
        "rotation_up": 34.71,
        "upward_expansion": 52.58,
        "deceleration": 83.09,
        "rotation_down": 28.91,
        "downward_expansion": 25.25
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.72104,
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        15.722973,
        15.600748
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 16.15,
    "trend_reference": 15.231708,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.060288,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.194038,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324418,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.239313,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.195488,
    "excess_performance": 0.008034,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060288,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062165,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.324418,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027118,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012393,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027667,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.195488,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.858124,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11684,
      "relative_activity": 0.207652,
      "balance": 0.858124,
      "dry_up": 0.620411,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.065923,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.245538,
      "from_high_reference": -0.056868,
      "from_low_reference": 0.360836
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 12.194038,
      "structural_low": 13.518781,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": -0.007282,
        "positive_rate": 0.45,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.45,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008342,
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        "best_return": 0.133638,
        "worst_return": -0.146104,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "sufficient": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "relative_strength": -3.825394,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 48.105312,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 15.31,
        "volume": 95343,
        "typical_volume": 59481.95,
        "trend": 15.065796,
        "fair_value": 12.077913,
        "relative_strength": -2.924543,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.764094,
        "energy": 24.602187,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.832,
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          15.709868,
          15.477234
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.8652,
        "volume": 13782,
        "typical_volume": 58898.85,
        "trend": 15.118921,
        "fair_value": 12.11689,
        "relative_strength": 2.297233,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.691385,
        "energy": 17.837867,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.25,
        "volume": 18826,
        "typical_volume": 58057.95,
        "trend": 15.166014,
        "fair_value": 12.152658,
        "relative_strength": -2.060761,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.53373,
        "energy": 12.62838,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.57472,
          15.738756,
          15.683469,
          15.537266
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.15,
        "volume": 11684,
        "typical_volume": 56267.15,
        "trend": 15.231708,
        "fair_value": 12.194038,
        "relative_strength": -1.239313,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.074595,
        "energy": 16.523736,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.72104,
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          15.722973,
          15.600748
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}