{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e2af7c4-4fa4-4f9c-aa21-d4f5f0e84b79", "symbol": "SIMON", "name": "Silicon Motion Technology Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.847, "architecture_energy": 35.743, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.67, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 65.67, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 28.59, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4647.077723, 4899.560103, 4340.781989, 3797.122922 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4476.049805, "trend_reference": 3144.767264, "distance_from_trend": 0.423333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1630.285856, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.745561, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 82.998401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.270657, "excess_performance": 1.325324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.423333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.558881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.745561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.13747, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.829984, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.595074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.270657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102, "relative_activity": 1.350099, "balance": 0.257072, "dry_up": 2.984778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102614, "annualized_volatility": 1.233507, "from_high_reference": -0.232773, "from_low_reference": 2.355723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3144.767264, "fair_value_reference": 1630.285856, "structural_low": 1971.257324, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.012308, "regime_survival": 0.391304, "best_return": 0.362409, "worst_return": -0.166377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000411, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.011502, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.147535, "worst_return": -0.187335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012352, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.017301, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133419, "worst_return": -0.109111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024723, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081916, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073984, "worst_return": 0.009751, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.189511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 1565.7958, "relative_strength": 103.886862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.529097, "energy": 68.711354, "activity_lines": [ 5297.696056, 5000.178667, 4026.051964, 3486.933181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4610.206498, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.45, "trend": 2962.840605, "fair_value": 1587.579145, "relative_strength": 99.437342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.572247, "energy": 66.762995, "activity_lines": [ 5072.476677, 5018.986153, 4146.803755, 3599.565405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4610.206498, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.45, "trend": 3061.274181, "fair_value": 1609.36249, "relative_strength": 92.945561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.065189, "energy": 55.568143, "activity_lines": [ 4854.976865, 4993.57734, 4255.972706, 3705.847076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4476.049805, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 75.55, "trend": 3144.767264, "fair_value": 1630.285856, "relative_strength": 82.998401, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.846856, "energy": 35.743465, "activity_lines": [ 4647.077723, 4899.560103, 4340.781989, 3797.122922 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }