{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e2b20d4-58ed-4862-9ce8-dbb9fa820fa8", "symbol": "AWL", "name": "AWL Agri Business Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.337, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.717, "architecture_energy": 8.964, "architecture_maturity": 12.23, "architecture_confidence": 64.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.65, "rotation_up": 28.74, "upward_expansion": 22.88, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 47.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 191.804002, 190.000278, 190.573578, 190.57713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 197.5, "trend_reference": 192.816047, "distance_from_trend": 0.024292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 286.411292, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310432, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.312786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065575, "excess_performance": -0.021866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15913243, "relative_activity": 1.200809, "balance": 0.650869, "dry_up": 1.107079, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047638, "annualized_volatility": 0.271594, "from_high_reference": -0.301873, "from_low_reference": 0.153689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 192.816047, "fair_value_reference": 286.411292, "structural_low": 171.190002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.003253, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007223, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.147133, "worst_return": -0.13912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037771, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.046752, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.068208, "worst_return": -0.221503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036488, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098878, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.027861, "worst_return": -0.28925, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.743425, "energy": 29.743907, "activity_lines": [ 187.931891, 189.009681, 189.893175, 191.913271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 188.660004, "volume": 10688246, "typical_volume": 16124545.15, "trend": 196.852714, "fair_value": 290.339497, "relative_strength": -14.033621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.240813, "energy": 23.914439, "activity_lines": [ 188.333335, 188.493302, 189.890264, 191.26387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 188.160004, "volume": 13439057, "typical_volume": 16316883.75, "trend": 195.22638, "fair_value": 288.938599, "relative_strength": -11.658965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.764362, "energy": 15.101556, "activity_lines": [ 188.646002, 188.19593, 189.84183, 190.70305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 189.440002, "volume": 18643976, "typical_volume": 14699723.6, "trend": 193.66538, "fair_value": 287.601035, "relative_strength": -12.79932, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.612876, "energy": 14.097206, "activity_lines": [ 189.128669, 188.322778, 189.863299, 190.329736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 197.5, "volume": 15913243, "typical_volume": 13252104.7, "trend": 192.816047, "fair_value": 286.411292, "relative_strength": -9.312786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.716635, "energy": 8.964373, "activity_lines": [ 191.804002, 190.000278, 190.573578, 190.57713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }