{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e2d2aa3-3771-44f9-9367-af36d5c01bd2", "symbol": "MURUDCERA", "name": "Murudeshwar Ceramics Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.134, "architecture_energy": 43.635, "architecture_maturity": 26.106, "architecture_confidence": 83.419, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.61, "rotation_up": 9.86, "upward_expansion": 15.16, "deceleration": 45.81, "rotation_down": 62.61, "downward_expansion": 78.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.826667, 31.193091, 31.78219, 31.744322 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.1, "trend_reference": 31.940666, "distance_from_trend": -0.02632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.772819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.289513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.94518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.083947, "excess_performance": -0.040238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.289513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94706, "relative_activity": 0.94659, "balance": 0.553855, "dry_up": 0.937475, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064408, "annualized_volatility": 0.333764, "from_high_reference": -0.345263, "from_low_reference": 0.236089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.940666, "fair_value_reference": 43.772819, "structural_low": 25.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000257, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243386, "worst_return": -0.212224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050265, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010535, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.556586, "worst_return": -0.301332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039462, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.024401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.849398, "worst_return": -0.365629, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.935693, "energy": 17.761097, "activity_lines": [ 31.930667, 32.202182, 32.116571, 32.128774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.799999, "volume": 65249, "typical_volume": 101094.45, "trend": 32.296333, "fair_value": 43.947607, "relative_strength": -12.557293, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.853507, "energy": 27.761655, "activity_lines": [ 31.544667, 31.878727, 32.032952, 32.024408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.4, "volume": 174061, "typical_volume": 104337.25, "trend": 32.157666, "fair_value": 43.888828, "relative_strength": -11.113533, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.344339, "energy": 41.619848, "activity_lines": [ 31.06, 31.533818, 31.92019, 31.902064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.620001, "volume": 41160, "typical_volume": 101158.85, "trend": 32.007333, "fair_value": 43.820902, "relative_strength": -12.213089, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.048365, "energy": 45.704075, "activity_lines": [ 30.813334, 31.292909, 31.831428, 31.80286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.1, "volume": 94706, "typical_volume": 100049.65, "trend": 31.940666, "fair_value": 43.772819, "relative_strength": -10.94518, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.134299, "energy": 43.634875, "activity_lines": [ 30.826667, 31.193091, 31.78219, 31.744322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }