{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e32894a-d9bc-4d60-a917-8baa19700b5c", "symbol": "EFG", "name": "Eagle Football Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.197, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.563, "architecture_energy": 28.396, "architecture_maturity": 16.432, "architecture_confidence": 71.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.51, "rotation_up": 23.73, "upward_expansion": 9.94, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 52.89, "downward_expansion": 49.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.795333, 1.804818, 1.873476, 1.873677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.755, "trend_reference": 1.859167, "distance_from_trend": -0.056029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.94516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.667824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066489, "excess_performance": -0.119801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165103, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.087061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7665, "relative_activity": 0.526927, "balance": 0.087061, "dry_up": 0.356355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061801, "annualized_volatility": 0.309587, "from_high_reference": -0.209459, "from_low_reference": 0.17 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.859167, "fair_value_reference": 1.94516, "structural_low": 1.545, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005332, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016861, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.039427, "worst_return": -0.078125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005769, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144279, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.156544, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.442786, "worst_return": -0.280822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.161972, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288288, "worst_return": -0.320922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.121287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029586, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028249, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.93, "volume": 14575, "typical_volume": 965894.15, "trend": 2.866667, "fair_value": 2.445321, "relative_strength": -35.142622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.57409, "energy": 96.321315, 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"direction": -21.002322, "energy": 34.782593, "activity_lines": [ 1.801333, 1.876636, 1.909667, 1.88543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.77, "volume": 4631, "typical_volume": 15470.75, "trend": 1.837833, "fair_value": 1.955929, "relative_strength": -4.447195, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.476249, "energy": 46.912389, "activity_lines": [ 1.780333, 1.845273, 1.897905, 1.881419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.845, "volume": 3464, "typical_volume": 14914.75, "trend": 1.848, "fair_value": 1.948526, "relative_strength": -0.594985, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.330406, "energy": 44.700262, "activity_lines": [ 1.796333, 1.834636, 1.893524, 1.881882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 4975, "typical_volume": 14913.5, "trend": 1.854167, "fair_value": 1.946987, "relative_strength": -3.273388, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.775231, "energy": 21.726485, "activity_lines": [ 1.809, 1.823909, 1.886548, 1.880075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.755, "volume": 7665, "typical_volume": 14546.6, "trend": 1.859167, "fair_value": 1.94516, "relative_strength": -8.667824, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.563132, "energy": 28.395586, "activity_lines": [ 1.795333, 1.804818, 1.873476, 1.873677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }