{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e333945-417e-4831-9a24-3f89aa1dd775", "symbol": "SAME", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Advcd Mcr Dvcs ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.922, "architecture_energy": 89.91, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.76, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 63.15, "downward_expansion": 99.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.263267, 0.2789, 0.335282, 0.450624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.26085, "trend_reference": 0.59694, "distance_from_trend": -0.563021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.955188, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.866586, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.663387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.720268, "excess_performance": -0.771503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.563021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273663, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.866586, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044018, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.716634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.720268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.503002, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 6.503002, "dry_up": 0.003759, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115967, "annualized_volatility": 0.57255, "from_high_reference": -0.834276, "from_low_reference": 0.09051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.59694, "fair_value_reference": 1.955188, "structural_low": 0.2392, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.061386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091653, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.187084, "worst_return": -0.405568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.205639, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.226024, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.317295, "worst_return": -0.588036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.307944, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.239392, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.471337, "worst_return": -0.686159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.224747, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.256178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092147, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.486775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.214846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.607449, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.7475, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 530.6, "trend": 4.186025, "fair_value": 6.408535, "relative_strength": -29.149507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"volume": 1566, "typical_volume": 18243.6, "trend": 0.690925, "fair_value": 2.036615, "relative_strength": -70.977212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.212023, "energy": 81.498479, "activity_lines": [ 0.303283, 0.319014, 0.434994, 0.552218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.27375, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 18079.2, "trend": 0.667417, "fair_value": 2.016212, "relative_strength": -72.00566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.030872, "energy": 85.389784, "activity_lines": [ 0.292017, 0.307682, 0.406126, 0.525303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2519, "volume": 210, "typical_volume": 18089.7, "trend": 0.64403, "fair_value": 1.996135, "relative_strength": -73.807989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.325698, "energy": 93.967458, "activity_lines": [ 0.276517, 0.294541, 0.378419, 0.498496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26295, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18089.7, "trend": 0.621778, "fair_value": 1.976689, "relative_strength": -72.177719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.348268, "energy": 89.228363, "activity_lines": [ 0.26839, 0.286011, 0.355174, 0.47391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26085, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18089.7, "trend": 0.59694, "fair_value": 1.955188, "relative_strength": -71.663387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.922313, "energy": 89.910163, "activity_lines": [ 0.263267, 0.2789, 0.335282, 0.450624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }