{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e363ecb-aa93-4c30-b229-0219b9413b9c", "symbol": "OBDC", "name": "Blue Owl Capital Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.87, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.187, "architecture_energy": 21.472, "architecture_maturity": 6.5, "architecture_confidence": 49.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 52.67, "upward_expansion": 32.01, "deceleration": 35.58, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 23.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.096667, 10.951639, 10.93482, 10.951729 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.64, "trend_reference": 11.053121, "distance_from_trend": 0.053096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.962054, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.508775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049686, "excess_performance": -0.075939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043987, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049686, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31504200, "relative_activity": 1.574993, "balance": 0.859752, "dry_up": 1.06002, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041066, "annualized_volatility": 0.228617, "from_high_reference": -0.11728, "from_low_reference": 0.12943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.053121, "fair_value_reference": 11.962054, "structural_low": 10.306082, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004683, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010308, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.137375, "worst_return": -0.106133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027133, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192664, "worst_return": -0.106424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020831, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295545, "worst_return": -0.109716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033541, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.143658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.428062, "worst_return": -0.086612, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028283, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095446, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032997, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076708, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.276003, "energy": 16.074734, "activity_lines": [ 10.856665, 10.804289, 10.879409, 10.938649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.75, "volume": 21059327, "typical_volume": 19880731.35, "trend": 11.070235, "fair_value": 11.952102, "relative_strength": -14.979174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.305185, "energy": 15.734178, "activity_lines": [ 10.836, 10.79729, 10.865101, 10.91497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.64, "volume": 31504200, "typical_volume": 20002756.2, "trend": 11.053121, "fair_value": 11.962054, "relative_strength": -10.508775, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.186878, "energy": 21.471617, "activity_lines": [ 11.096667, 10.951639, 10.93482, 10.951729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }