{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e391f5b-d37b-4689-85be-f9fd8fb7c40d", "symbol": "9596", "name": "Quara Finance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 71.259, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.284, "architecture_energy": 30.068, "architecture_maturity": 4.444, "architecture_confidence": 77.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.19, "rotation_up": 64.66, "upward_expansion": 46.58, "deceleration": 25.24, "rotation_down": 15.05, "downward_expansion": 16.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.945334, 16.765091, 16.588715, 16.644925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.9, "trend_reference": 16.806667, "distance_from_trend": 0.005553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.1964, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.439431, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005882, "excess_performance": 0.025947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017236, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004394, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069243, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.433829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 790, "relative_activity": 0.195414, "balance": 1.433829, "dry_up": 0.261583, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029631, "annualized_volatility": 0.131811, "from_high_reference": -0.086486, "from_low_reference": 0.157534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.806667, "fair_value_reference": 17.1964, "structural_low": 14.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005882, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-08", "close": 19.5, "volume": 602773, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ 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38.453659, "activity_lines": [ 16.200001, 16.205456, 16.426715, 16.651011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 1095, "typical_volume": 4361.25, "trend": 16.909, "fair_value": 17.208917, "relative_strength": -0.646886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.977865, "energy": 20.262996, "activity_lines": [ 16.366668, 16.29091, 16.431667, 16.636259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.68, "volume": 891, "typical_volume": 4362.7, "trend": 16.886334, "fair_value": 17.204545, "relative_strength": -0.672259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.545113, "energy": 17.682865, "activity_lines": [ 16.493334, 16.369092, 16.438525, 16.621484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 1509, "typical_volume": 4398.4, "trend": 16.864334, "fair_value": 17.20041, "relative_strength": 0.313452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.360921, "energy": 15.887422, "activity_lines": [ 16.594667, 16.442183, 16.450715, 16.609463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 1058, "typical_volume": 4031.45, "trend": 16.859667, "fair_value": 17.200407, "relative_strength": 2.565829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.620871, "energy": 26.844935, "activity_lines": [ 16.829334, 16.597092, 16.513858, 16.631119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.0, "volume": 873, "typical_volume": 4022.15, "trend": 16.826334, "fair_value": 17.19879, "relative_strength": 3.386491, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.744713, "energy": 33.71587, "activity_lines": [ 16.930667, 16.697455, 16.556477, 16.640173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.9, "volume": 790, "typical_volume": 4042.7, "trend": 16.806667, "fair_value": 17.1964, "relative_strength": 0.439431, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.283588, "energy": 30.067668, "activity_lines": [ 16.945334, 16.765091, 16.588715, 16.644925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }