{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e46125d-28f3-488c-994f-2d1021a7b0d8", "symbol": "LOT", "name": "Lotus Technology Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.162, "architecture_energy": 67.752, "architecture_maturity": 21.869, "architecture_confidence": 88.439, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 9.88, "upward_expansion": 15.13, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 69.93, "downward_expansion": 88.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.924707, 1.004511, 1.113777, 1.144921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9496, "trend_reference": 1.184583, "distance_from_trend": -0.198368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.248422, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.707673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.596199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174261, "excess_performance": -0.361715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.198368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.707673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 506150, "relative_activity": 0.951804, "balance": 0.456933, "dry_up": 0.821387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212324, "annualized_volatility": 0.625002, "from_high_reference": -0.58713, "from_low_reference": 0.169746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.184583, "fair_value_reference": 3.248422, "structural_low": 0.8118, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009632, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.150442, "worst_return": -0.122137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051085, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032825, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.261261, "worst_return": -0.159091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.060606, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105411, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060606, "worst_return": 0.060606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -49.947608, "energy": 35.104638, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.201636, 1.229619, 1.229849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.145, "volume": 669849, "typical_volume": 499105.3, "trend": 1.2415, "fair_value": 3.322992, "relative_strength": -35.296468, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.486907, "energy": 41.123764, "activity_lines": [ 1.146333, 1.185273, 1.222762, 1.223161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.02, "volume": 346191, "typical_volume": 504940.7, "trend": 1.230833, "fair_value": 3.304714, "relative_strength": -38.523823, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.115563, "energy": 50.954974, "activity_lines": [ 1.102667, 1.149, 1.203833, 1.208871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.874, "volume": 581729, "typical_volume": 516214.65, "trend": 1.2163, "fair_value": 3.285575, "relative_strength": -45.289539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.908466, "energy": 64.058878, "activity_lines": [ 1.021667, 1.089455, 1.171619, 1.185849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8289, "volume": 313118, "typical_volume": 515012.15, "trend": 1.196597, "fair_value": 3.266382, "relative_strength": -47.427073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.632116, "energy": 72.442922, "activity_lines": [ 0.944033, 1.031273, 1.136233, 1.160856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9496, "volume": 506150, "typical_volume": 531779.85, "trend": 1.184583, "fair_value": 3.248422, "relative_strength": -41.596199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.162422, "energy": 67.751547, "activity_lines": [ 0.924707, 1.004511, 1.113777, 1.144921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }