{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e47fa80-cd09-4a5a-8c85-28b2c2e393cf", "symbol": "NOBLE", "name": "Noble Development Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.34, "architecture_energy": 21.051, "architecture_maturity": 93.037, "architecture_confidence": 63.051, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.67, "rotation_up": 29.13, "upward_expansion": 19.71, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 20.14, "downward_expansion": 53.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.854, 1.838, 1.843095, 1.90372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.85, "trend_reference": 2.001, "distance_from_trend": -0.075462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.552244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.670175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151376, "excess_performance": -0.343701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050308, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275148, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018809, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.196424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1359700, "relative_activity": 0.612614, "balance": 1.196424, "dry_up": 1.931241, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041164, "annualized_volatility": 0.373328, "from_high_reference": -0.319853, "from_low_reference": 0.10119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.001, "fair_value_reference": 2.552244, "structural_low": 1.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.023759, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.233333, "worst_return": -0.18254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.052153, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.058202, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.228567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.069224, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.07227, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.358038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.772, 1.802545, 1.889857, 1.974645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.85, "volume": 965500, "typical_volume": 3436235.0, "trend": 2.053667, "fair_value": 2.605639, "relative_strength": -24.180442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.495963, "energy": 71.909808, "activity_lines": [ 1.792, 1.806, 1.87519, 1.960796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.83, "volume": 2951900, "typical_volume": 2908735.0, "trend": 2.042, "fair_value": 2.59475, "relative_strength": -25.10631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.256026, "energy": 58.600886, "activity_lines": [ 1.806, 1.807455, 1.860571, 1.946366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.92, "volume": 11968900, "typical_volume": 2966530.0, "trend": 2.033333, "fair_value": 2.584224, "relative_strength": -21.975467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.971204, "energy": 35.224358, "activity_lines": [ 1.848, 1.826545, 1.857714, 1.938495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 2813200, "typical_volume": 2722295.0, "trend": 2.023, "fair_value": 2.573443, "relative_strength": -25.518492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.26488, "energy": 25.905706, "activity_lines": [ 1.850667, 1.828364, 1.849905, 1.925376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.85, "volume": 1003800, "typical_volume": 2285555.0, "trend": 2.012667, "fair_value": 2.563004, "relative_strength": -23.471949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.217354, "energy": 23.361882, "activity_lines": [ 1.856, 1.833091, 1.846048, 1.914215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.85, "volume": 1359700, "typical_volume": 2219505.0, "trend": 2.001, "fair_value": 2.552244, "relative_strength": -22.670175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.340405, "energy": 21.051062, "activity_lines": [ 1.854, 1.838, 1.843095, 1.90372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }