{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e4a1270-1405-4268-8489-67dde721b6a0", "symbol": "LADR", "name": "Ladder Capital Corp Class A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.645, "architecture_energy": 42.395, "architecture_maturity": 16.147, "architecture_confidence": 91.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.21, "rotation_up": 16.09, "upward_expansion": 10.79, "deceleration": 37.71, "rotation_down": 53.69, "downward_expansion": 79.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.752, 9.845849, 9.907804, 9.929887 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.76, "trend_reference": 10.029158, "distance_from_trend": -0.026837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.825629, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.353084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027287, "excess_performance": -0.152912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021825, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006679, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6853215, "relative_activity": 1.405378, "balance": 1.167191, "dry_up": 1.329779, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039313, "annualized_volatility": 0.147081, "from_high_reference": -0.126356, "from_low_reference": 0.040512 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.029158, "fair_value_reference": 9.825629, "structural_low": 9.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.009542, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.00022, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081187, "worst_return": -0.14517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018444, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011076, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.066509, "worst_return": -0.089631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037047, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.028999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114883, "worst_return": -0.061146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 9.77, "volume": 5381388, "typical_volume": 4581977.4, "trend": 10.103252, "fair_value": 9.812206, "relative_strength": -12.196566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.884639, "energy": 23.907932, "activity_lines": [ 9.915032, 9.947838, 9.957605, 9.984318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.56, "volume": 8406189, "typical_volume": 4806980.45, "trend": 10.060429, "fair_value": 9.817996, "relative_strength": -14.604306, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.225507, "energy": 46.36943, "activity_lines": [ 9.780667, 9.87556, 9.922657, 9.949269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.76, "volume": 6853215, "typical_volume": 4876419.85, "trend": 10.029158, "fair_value": 9.825629, "relative_strength": -15.353084, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.645273, "energy": 42.394819, "activity_lines": [ 9.752, 9.845849, 9.907804, 9.929887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }