{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e51217c-0436-4a54-a59b-ce3a279c7bac", "symbol": "SHLD", "name": "Global X Defense Tech ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.841, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.376, "architecture_energy": 19.073, "architecture_maturity": 74.658, "architecture_confidence": 67.534, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.5, "rotation_up": 31.78, "upward_expansion": 23.36, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 19.92, "downward_expansion": 57.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 1112.63999, 1091.847266, 1107.069363, 1145.820265 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1172.97998, "trend_reference": 1197.807723, "distance_from_trend": -0.020728, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 962.751287, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.197115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065355, "excess_performance": -0.010688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020728, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106871, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.768087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.029187, "balance": 1.768087, "dry_up": 0.282595, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041638, "annualized_volatility": 0.277833, "from_high_reference": -0.157905, "from_low_reference": 0.13875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1197.807723, "fair_value_reference": 962.751287, "structural_low": 1030.059326, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046434, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.09655, "worst_return": -0.018488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 9e-06, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076277, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 33.429321, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 33.737648, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 33.707813, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 548.435791, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 580.015137, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 580.015137, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 580.075623, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 580.075623, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 593.593872, "volume": 89, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 561.692993, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 561.692993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 561.692993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 561.692993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-16", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 656.520386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 773.898315, "volume": 321, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 773.898315, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 773.898315, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 774.035461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 774.035461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 774.035461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 774.035461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 774.035461, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 830.745056, "volume": 91, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 830.745056, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "close": 830.745056, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "close": 830.745056, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "close": 939.886047, "volume": 584, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "close": 924.265991, "volume": 452, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "close": 924.265991, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "close": 928.882385, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "close": 953.118225, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "close": 984.955139, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "close": 984.955139, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "close": 984.955139, "volume": 325, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "close": 984.955139, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "close": 1024.751343, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "close": 1015.210144, "volume": 87, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "close": 1062.060303, "volume": 4680, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "close": 1062.060303, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "close": 1062.060303, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "close": 1062.060303, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "close": 1112.302979, "volume": 625, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "close": 1112.421021, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "close": 1112.421021, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "close": 1112.421021, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "close": 1112.421021, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "close": 1143.266357, "volume": 31762, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "close": 1150.977661, "volume": 868, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "close": 1141.664307, "volume": 533, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "close": 1168.032104, "volume": 359, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "close": 1148.838379, "volume": 1868, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "close": 1156.64917, "volume": 366, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "close": 1154.211426, "volume": 607, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "close": 1202.678345, "volume": 1569, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "close": 1219.991455, "volume": 216, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "close": 1229.842163, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "close": 1290.52771, "volume": 831, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "close": 1257.712402, "volume": 1445, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "close": 1205.245483, "volume": 847, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "close": 1228.847168, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "close": 1254.995972, "volume": 1209, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "close": 1200.847534, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "close": 1180.091675, "volume": 392, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "close": 1134.311157, "volume": 689, "typical_volume": 2215.45, "trend": 1143.462512, "fair_value": 855.183955, "relative_strength": 1.978142, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.81787, "energy": 14.858057, "activity_lines": [ 1182.22028, 1206.12923, 1200.754619, 1179.729104 ] }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "close": 1130.699341, "volume": 186, "typical_volume": 2224.75, "trend": 1148.320652, "fair_value": 858.585379, "relative_strength": -1.579321, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.483311, "energy": 27.96284, "activity_lines": [ 1159.180493, 1189.848879, 1195.613735, 1178.905674 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "close": 1134.321167, "volume": 1970, "typical_volume": 2323.25, "trend": 1151.97298, "fair_value": 861.948011, "relative_strength": -1.459967, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.640097, "energy": 37.522629, "activity_lines": [ 1143.89117, 1175.850535, 1190.730747, 1178.002481 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "close": 1156.997437, "volume": 542, "typical_volume": 762.25, "trend": 1156.699223, "fair_value": 865.502823, "relative_strength": -1.861614, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.364755, "energy": 39.634469, "activity_lines": [ 1144.205591, 1167.711894, 1187.903117, 1178.326639 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "close": 1145.803589, "volume": 394, "typical_volume": 738.55, "trend": 1159.490666, "fair_value": 868.839737, "relative_strength": -1.917708, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.95207, "energy": 43.007166, "activity_lines": [ 1143.712069, 1159.965832, 1183.944021, 1177.623695 ] }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "close": 1190.18103, "volume": 195, "typical_volume": 721.65, "trend": 1163.761357, "fair_value": 872.620223, "relative_strength": -0.963805, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.753587, "energy": 14.035028, "activity_lines": [ 1160.296899, 1162.3231, 1184.235986, 1179.603719 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "close": 1180.01001, "volume": 214, "typical_volume": 714.4, "trend": 1167.693014, "fair_value": 876.194523, "relative_strength": 0.206218, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.109602, "energy": 6.550787, "activity_lines": [ 1169.766732, 1163.104992, 1183.32825, 1180.652019 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "close": 1354.939941, "volume": 7501, "typical_volume": 996.05, "trend": 1177.455668, "fair_value": 881.697344, "relative_strength": 11.144129, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.942131, "energy": 49.891633, "activity_lines": [ 1234.259163, 1196.580273, 1199.02347, 1192.732466 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "close": 1377.0, "volume": 2995, "typical_volume": 1127.5, "trend": 1186.278902, "fair_value": 887.325783, "relative_strength": 10.562057, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.38982, "energy": 89.966692, "activity_lines": [ 1291.39703, 1232.249312, 1215.838212, 1205.606294 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "close": 1332.5, "volume": 6808, "typical_volume": 1437.55, "trend": 1193.614868, "fair_value": 892.327741, "relative_strength": 4.849758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.48303, "energy": 87.795614, "activity_lines": [ 1319.034725, 1256.624669, 1227.365569, 1215.039913 ] }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "close": 1307.5, "volume": 8534, "typical_volume": 1785.8, "trend": 1200.117501, "fair_value": 896.940766, "relative_strength": 3.339221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.354751, "energy": 85.937368, "activity_lines": [ 1325.892659, 1273.683512, 1235.662981, 1222.387341 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "close": 1255.0, "volume": 2471, "typical_volume": 1898.55, "trend": 1204.870133, "fair_value": 900.875483, "relative_strength": -5.501285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.879664, "energy": 75.061774, "activity_lines": [ 1307.429329, 1278.048011, 1238.461242, 1225.928147 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "close": 1239.0, "volume": 1068, "typical_volume": 1939.05, "trend": 1209.089433, "fair_value": 904.550749, "relative_strength": -7.766021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.163889, "energy": 38.635231, "activity_lines": [ 1278.633333, 1277.243408, 1239.568985, 1228.130074 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "close": 1309.98999, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": 1906.5, "trend": 1214.646887, "fair_value": 908.910311, "relative_strength": -2.71027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.399523, "energy": 31.529787, "activity_lines": [ 1281.229997, 1287.442824, 1247.394072, 1234.639788 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "close": 1283.0, "volume": 582, "typical_volume": 1863.35, "trend": 1219.047632, "fair_value": 912.889988, "relative_strength": -4.876652, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.629153, "energy": 21.995052, "activity_lines": [ 1279.297331, 1289.953287, 1252.556006, 1239.049666 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "close": 1323.0, "volume": 1109, "typical_volume": 1876.45, "trend": 1225.092155, "fair_value": 917.206936, "relative_strength": 3.854866, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.556141, "energy": 31.915022, "activity_lines": [ 1293.997998, 1297.241997, 1261.407046, 1245.75627 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "close": 1355.0, "volume": 15734, "typical_volume": 2650.65, "trend": 1231.324418, "fair_value": 921.76728, "relative_strength": 8.729139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.704563, "energy": 50.637538, "activity_lines": [ 1318.331999, 1307.933998, 1272.74497, 1254.137421 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "close": 1339.189941, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 2596.0, "trend": 1237.66947, "fair_value": 926.070607, "relative_strength": 9.627073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.082403, "energy": 51.182592, "activity_lines": [ 1330.729313, 1312.569806, 1281.976446, 1261.096487 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "close": 1267.0, "volume": 413, "typical_volume": 2604.65, "trend": 1241.347831, "fair_value": 929.549478, "relative_strength": -0.403746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.934459, "energy": 36.829245, "activity_lines": [ 1312.383984, 1304.366535, 1283.931766, 1262.98878 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "close": 1287.51001, "volume": 246, "typical_volume": 2597.35, "trend": 1245.791117, "fair_value": 933.165241, "relative_strength": -3.166038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.542793, "energy": 28.77634, "activity_lines": [ 1303.741325, 1301.892356, 1287.525409, 1265.966985 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 1306.099976, "volume": 186, "typical_volume": 2572.2, "trend": 1249.238505, "fair_value": 936.894588, "relative_strength": -2.172021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.418151, "energy": 21.091055, "activity_lines": [ 1300.994653, 1303.616171, 1292.378008, 1269.857879 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 1265.01001, "volume": 11774, "typical_volume": 3151.6, "trend": 1250.739124, "fair_value": 940.143256, "relative_strength": -4.937565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.938181, "energy": 18.684988, "activity_lines": [ 1285.677995, 1297.894538, 1292.499236, 1270.875395 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 1174.089966, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": 3060.4, "trend": 1248.880717, "fair_value": 942.436851, "relative_strength": -10.97474, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.123609, "energy": 26.859577, "activity_lines": [ 1246.053988, 1275.459988, 1283.321837, 1265.930288 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 1184.239868, "volume": 2518, "typical_volume": 3159.2, "trend": 1245.337789, "fair_value": 944.784453, "relative_strength": -8.37084, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.55558, "energy": 46.899827, "activity_lines": [ 1220.819946, 1256.051057, 1274.92172, 1261.759911 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 1130.221436, "volume": 340, "typical_volume": 3156.5, "trend": 1241.08809, "fair_value": 946.567501, "relative_strength": -14.884183, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.890767, "energy": 67.89985, "activity_lines": [ 1183.097103, 1229.106958, 1261.247265, 1254.33305 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 1073.591187, "volume": 12141, "typical_volume": 3753.8, "trend": 1236.699613, "fair_value": 947.77725, "relative_strength": -16.76966, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.932705, "energy": 80.489966, "activity_lines": [ 1136.983415, 1194.644243, 1242.253653, 1243.526798 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 1116.455078, "volume": 63, "typical_volume": 3746.25, "trend": 1232.953211, "fair_value": 949.368551, "relative_strength": -13.737537, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.602785, "energy": 77.059834, "activity_lines": [ 1120.658277, 1172.509668, 1227.897506, 1235.769086 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 1170.28418, "volume": 26071, "typical_volume": 4674.75, "trend": 1230.129484, "fair_value": 951.433183, "relative_strength": -9.794703, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.677341, "energy": 71.342911, "activity_lines": [ 1132.179834, 1164.499383, 1218.970584, 1231.725923 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 1095.98999, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 4532.1, "trend": 1226.634233, "fair_value": 952.771672, "relative_strength": -12.243085, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.078522, "energy": 80.328844, "activity_lines": [ 1119.190381, 1146.052078, 1203.847337, 1223.071762 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 1089.849609, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 4192.9, "trend": 1223.626164, "fair_value": 954.029267, "relative_strength": -14.850483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.882261, "energy": 72.423891, "activity_lines": [ 1110.037459, 1129.597612, 1189.477434, 1214.246947 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1073.591187, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3766.2, "trend": 1221.602165, "fair_value": 955.116194, "relative_strength": -15.474404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.283187, "energy": 70.225359, "activity_lines": [ 1098.156519, 1113.780895, 1174.714589, 1204.567271 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1030.059326, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3642.65, "trend": 1218.247498, "fair_value": 955.791357, "relative_strength": -17.982051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.0222, "energy": 91.579567, "activity_lines": [ 1071.764958, 1094.276727, 1156.919704, 1192.209669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1067.880005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3589.25, "trend": 1216.032792, "fair_value": 956.792149, "relative_strength": -14.473467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.907648, "energy": 84.016729, "activity_lines": [ 1063.740007, 1085.920876, 1143.797934, 1182.50854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1069.699951, "volume": 890, "typical_volume": 3624.75, "trend": 1213.122876, "fair_value": 957.791333, "relative_strength": -13.280829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.832057, "energy": 68.364259, "activity_lines": [ 1063.148649, 1079.827015, 1131.66435, 1173.067712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1052.0, "volume": 345, "typical_volume": 3612.9, "trend": 1209.99609, "fair_value": 958.617725, "relative_strength": -14.539877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.766221, "energy": 63.008806, "activity_lines": [ 1058.409977, 1072.597525, 1118.989294, 1162.672688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1095.0, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 3563.25, "trend": 1206.823389, "fair_value": 959.803658, "relative_strength": -10.388693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.324331, "energy": 52.516825, "activity_lines": [ 1070.527946, 1074.608425, 1111.509476, 1155.253585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1091.5, "volume": 2746, "typical_volume": 2913.85, "trend": 1203.873055, "fair_value": 960.938971, "relative_strength": -11.049622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.958466, "energy": 40.716358, "activity_lines": [ 1080.051994, 1075.59371, 1104.782039, 1147.813366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1172.97998, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 2912.3, "trend": 1197.807723, "fair_value": 962.751287, "relative_strength": -4.197115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.376219, "energy": 19.072745, "activity_lines": [ 1112.63999, 1091.847266, 1107.069363, 1145.820265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }