{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e5a70b9-b449-4828-a243-608960511876", "symbol": "MKL", "name": "Markel Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.967, "architecture_energy": 14.755, "architecture_maturity": 16.676, "architecture_confidence": 70.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.5, "rotation_up": 31.3, "upward_expansion": 26.11, "deceleration": 30.69, "rotation_down": 33.09, "downward_expansion": 55.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 1918.888, 1923.369273, 1898.125524, 1906.573075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1875.05, "trend_reference": 1934.601667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030782, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1748.09, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.230749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108032, "excess_performance": -0.233657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030782, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009025, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035448, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.034291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 348106, "relative_activity": 1.009456, "balance": 2.034291, "dry_up": 0.958556, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041238, "annualized_volatility": 0.19812, "from_high_reference": -0.150635, "from_low_reference": 0.090519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1934.601667, "fair_value_reference": 1748.09, "structural_low": 1719.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008377, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000787, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060008, "worst_return": -0.019557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069838, "worst_return": 0.000432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.019176, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024651, "worst_return": 0.0137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.068849, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060261, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031363, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059984, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1495.11, "volume": 183640, "typical_volume": 157515.45, "trend": 1355.124333, "fair_value": 1236.646218, "relative_strength": 5.665758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 1739.555513, "relative_strength": -8.306635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.003699, "energy": 24.981062, "activity_lines": [ 1952.492, 1911.706545, 1890.675619, 1913.041247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1994.7, "volume": 214625, "typical_volume": 331181.25, "trend": 1951.462, "fair_value": 1743.063333, "relative_strength": -6.402775, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.999671, "energy": 41.641748, "activity_lines": [ 1972.788667, 1931.630182, 1900.466571, 1915.428989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1882.34, "volume": 447846, "typical_volume": 340919.35, "trend": 1943.194667, "fair_value": 1745.725577, "relative_strength": -12.270866, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.657135, "energy": 25.374332, "activity_lines": [ 1945.796, 1928.384727, 1899.499286, 1910.969505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1875.05, "volume": 348106, "typical_volume": 344845.1, "trend": 1934.601667, "fair_value": 1748.09, "relative_strength": -15.230749, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.967243, "energy": 14.755022, "activity_lines": [ 1918.888, 1923.369273, 1898.125524, 1906.573075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }