{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e5b1db1-c741-44d3-a861-5d9d2b6acf90", "symbol": "AKSO", "name": "Aker Solutions ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.491, "architecture_energy": 22.026, "architecture_maturity": 67.464, "architecture_confidence": 89.343, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.22, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 51.3, "deceleration": 82.32, "rotation_down": 33.51, "downward_expansion": 24.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.141333, 43.056, 43.095621, 41.472911 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.700001, "trend_reference": 38.582726, "distance_from_trend": 0.080795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.919158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.87467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.339974, "excess_performance": 0.214981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080795, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189658, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.393756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.158747, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.339974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1679403, "relative_activity": 0.535739, "balance": 0.493697, "dry_up": 0.677903, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058439, "annualized_volatility": 0.274041, "from_high_reference": -0.108974, "from_low_reference": 0.964469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.582726, "fair_value_reference": 29.919158, "structural_low": 30.186401, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.017392, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009103, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.224377, "worst_return": -0.106661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070028, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.310917, "worst_return": -0.100285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0936, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.048435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295196, "worst_return": -0.239031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"fair_value": 29.669879, "relative_strength": 36.292326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.541638, "energy": 61.974843, "activity_lines": [ 45.045333, 44.702546, 42.857915, 40.279874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.0, "volume": 3713699, "typical_volume": 3593664.3, "trend": 36.913951, "fair_value": 29.726291, "relative_strength": 20.044895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.573574, "energy": 37.239972, "activity_lines": [ 43.704, 44.089091, 42.897004, 40.579003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.619999, "volume": 1399548, "typical_volume": 3488121.15, "trend": 37.505843, "fair_value": 29.79646, "relative_strength": 20.897724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.993995, "energy": 28.801095, "activity_lines": [ 43.194666, 43.793454, 43.055107, 40.947135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.02, "volume": 1707554, "typical_volume": 3412777.3, "trend": 38.064632, "fair_value": 29.86376, "relative_strength": 17.88391, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.581631, "energy": 21.739254, "activity_lines": [ 42.648, 43.429818, 43.111836, 41.238371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.700001, "volume": 1679403, "typical_volume": 3134743.65, "trend": 38.582726, "fair_value": 29.919158, "relative_strength": 15.87467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.491379, "energy": 22.025691, "activity_lines": [ 42.141333, 43.056, 43.095621, 41.472911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }