{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e62875f-6c5c-4e95-adc0-c2c15651bccf", "symbol": "ALVAP", "name": "Kumulus Vape S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.765, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.45, "architecture_energy": 30.166, "architecture_maturity": 69.445, "architecture_confidence": 79.96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.47, "rotation_up": 23.38, "upward_expansion": 5.3, "deceleration": 53.69, "rotation_down": 42.94, "downward_expansion": 71.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.934667, 2.965155, 2.976544, 3.065818 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.07, "trend_reference": 3.244671, "distance_from_trend": -0.053833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.138729, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.667909, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206718, "excess_performance": -0.26003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099948, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090848, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206718, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.132608, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1666, "relative_activity": 0.328635, "balance": 6.132608, "dry_up": 0.376126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07858, "annualized_volatility": 0.311589, "from_high_reference": -0.393281, "from_low_reference": 0.218254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.244671, "fair_value_reference": 5.138729, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.447368, "median_excess_return": -0.017337, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.194286, "worst_return": -0.137019, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.054747, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.060333, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.183603, "worst_return": -0.25161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.158969, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.08712, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.067708, "worst_return": -0.203518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 23.579846, "activity_lines": [ 3.021523, 3.006114, 3.03088, 3.173411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.1, "volume": 1065, "typical_volume": 5187.65, "trend": 3.379004, "fair_value": 5.227534, "relative_strength": -20.175707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.38833, "energy": 18.352875, "activity_lines": [ 3.054855, 3.027033, 3.02926, 3.152808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.84, "volume": 3437, "typical_volume": 5252.65, "trend": 3.329004, "fair_value": 5.197074, "relative_strength": -26.284005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.141186, "energy": 34.524219, "activity_lines": [ 2.986, 2.996975, 3.00464, 3.118034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.73, "volume": 1459, "typical_volume": 5088.85, "trend": 3.280337, "fair_value": 5.166149, "relative_strength": -29.43139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.997943, "energy": 45.112725, "activity_lines": [ 2.891333, 2.948116, 2.972735, 3.079388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.07, "volume": 1666, "typical_volume": 5069.45, "trend": 3.244671, "fair_value": 5.138729, "relative_strength": -21.667909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.449866, "energy": 30.165843, "activity_lines": [ 2.934667, 2.965155, 2.976544, 3.065818 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }