{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e692cf8-c715-4a79-8271-1c6c5202119e", "symbol": "CSX", "name": "CSX Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.928, "architecture_energy": 61.775, "architecture_maturity": 48.868, "architecture_confidence": 82.903, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 67.54, "upward_expansion": 83.85, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 15.94, "downward_expansion": 10.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.903333, 49.962909, 48.14684, 46.401472 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.27, "trend_reference": 44.012587, "distance_from_trend": 0.142173, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.883652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.292968, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.245774, "excess_performance": 0.05832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142173, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105423, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.10293, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07554, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.245774, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.594852, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55866914, "relative_activity": 0.905263, "balance": 1.594852, "dry_up": 1.145072, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046468, "annualized_volatility": 0.218307, "from_high_reference": -0.062127, "from_low_reference": 0.596757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.012587, "fair_value_reference": 34.883652, "structural_low": 37.763189, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.007701, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.02349, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.127448, "worst_return": -0.111902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01462, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.24342, "worst_return": -0.120657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032488, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.069684, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.462057, "worst_return": -0.128623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 53.23, "volume": 86515187, "typical_volume": 61579386.3, "trend": 43.024144, "fair_value": 34.620805, "relative_strength": 24.13668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.970027, "energy": 94.102974, "activity_lines": [ 50.854667, 49.233084, 47.225697, 45.489017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.4, "volume": 78546043, "typical_volume": 62301603.9, "trend": 43.502812, "fair_value": 34.75028, "relative_strength": 16.512016, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.055267, "energy": 78.080286, "activity_lines": [ 50.992, 49.655455, 47.719176, 45.964879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.27, "volume": 55866914, "typical_volume": 61713495.75, "trend": 44.012587, "fair_value": 34.883652, "relative_strength": 10.292968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.927551, "energy": 61.774832, "activity_lines": [ 50.903333, 49.962909, 48.14684, 46.401472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }