{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e693593-20d6-4514-ba85-3647c991dc5a", "symbol": "600020", "name": "Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.353, "architecture_energy": 20.341, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.276, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.24, "rotation_up": 28.96, "upward_expansion": 13.78, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 26.9, "downward_expansion": 61.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.793333, 3.760544, 3.808256, 3.856296 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 3.941379, "distance_from_trend": -0.038408, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.899024, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.118325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07335, "excess_performance": -0.030146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038408, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027962, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73425488, "relative_activity": 1.28711, "balance": 0.649678, "dry_up": 1.361282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042041, "annualized_volatility": 0.207222, "from_high_reference": -0.215321, "from_low_reference": 0.055241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.941379, "fair_value_reference": 3.899024, "structural_low": 3.591596, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.006984, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.006968, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.092527, "worst_return": -0.068627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010345, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032356, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.025236, "worst_return": -0.075515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022082, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.063296, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.308181, "worst_return": -0.09009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 3.972379, "fair_value": 3.893843, "relative_strength": -7.635511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.470003, "energy": 39.491748, "activity_lines": [ 3.729957, 3.751685, 3.814936, 3.874968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.85, "volume": 60239575, "typical_volume": 56779485.15, "trend": 3.957046, "fair_value": 3.896596, "relative_strength": -4.568478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.347261, "energy": 24.035584, "activity_lines": [ 3.778, 3.760932, 3.813643, 3.867073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 73425488, "typical_volume": 57046801.95, "trend": 3.941379, "fair_value": 3.899024, "relative_strength": -8.118325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.352595, "energy": 20.341015, "activity_lines": [ 3.793333, 3.760544, 3.808256, 3.856296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }