{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e698b86-acde-499d-9f2d-6b0a8dd88266", "symbol": "301193", "name": "Ningbo Homelink Eco-iTech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.42, "architecture_energy": 74.47, "architecture_maturity": 30.27, "architecture_confidence": 90.868, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 13.13, "upward_expansion": 17.25, "deceleration": 38.33, "rotation_down": 72.02, "downward_expansion": 92.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.490666, 17.401818, 19.579762, 20.854753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.719999, "trend_reference": 22.243667, "distance_from_trend": -0.203369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.214622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027155, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.639924, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2564, "excess_performance": -0.263799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.460518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.607791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18473128, "relative_activity": 0.681055, "balance": 0.607791, "dry_up": 0.703725, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145555, "annualized_volatility": 0.650124, "from_high_reference": -0.409136, "from_low_reference": 0.198917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.243667, "fair_value_reference": 18.214622, "structural_low": 14.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.034351, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006049, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.262136, "worst_return": -0.187836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.14669, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075751, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": -0.036994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.16929, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053091, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.306803, "worst_return": -0.159482, "sufficient": false 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"energy": 73.27237, "activity_lines": [ 18.831333, 20.356364, 21.816762, 22.531978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.049999, "volume": 20501661, "typical_volume": 28873911.75, "trend": 22.812333, "fair_value": 18.242304, "relative_strength": -25.603475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.617343, "energy": 79.946684, "activity_lines": [ 17.708, 19.340545, 21.162143, 22.085699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.09, "volume": 20310312, "typical_volume": 27964497.75, "trend": 22.595333, "fair_value": 18.2293, "relative_strength": -29.795275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.971839, "energy": 82.437358, "activity_lines": [ 16.628, 18.328727, 20.465619, 21.587484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.89, "volume": 17067016, "typical_volume": 27301287.5, "trend": 22.372, "fair_value": 18.215715, "relative_strength": -24.471644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.48948, "energy": 83.224729, "activity_lines": [ 16.164666, 17.624363, 19.910905, 21.154882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.719999, "volume": 18473128, "typical_volume": 27124288.25, "trend": 22.243667, "fair_value": 18.214622, "relative_strength": -19.639924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.419732, "energy": 74.469726, "activity_lines": [ 16.490666, 17.401818, 19.579762, 20.854753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }