{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4e6ef6e4-a6c2-4f41-baca-70ea7ba441be",
    "symbol": "IWL",
    "name": "ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL TOP 200 ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 85.948,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.249,
    "architecture_energy": 52.394,
    "architecture_maturity": 51.034,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.986,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 30.28,
        "rotation_up": 54.51,
        "upward_expansion": 80.42,
        "deceleration": 61.17,
        "rotation_down": 25.46,
        "downward_expansion": 7.08
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        186.553333,
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        183.688207,
        180.044606
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 191.62,
    "trend_reference": 175.984485,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.088846,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 143.392125,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336336,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.359186,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.124785,
    "excess_performance": -0.00084,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.088846,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030367,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.336336,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003597,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003592,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003055,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124785,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.980543,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 199736,
      "relative_activity": 0.806942,
      "balance": 1.980543,
      "dry_up": 0.86467,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026158,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.150794,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00364,
      "from_low_reference": 0.235826
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 175.984485,
      "fair_value_reference": 143.392125,
      "structural_low": 155.054194,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": 0.022015,
        "positive_rate": 0.707317,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.707317,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000607,
        "regime_survival": 0.804878,
        "best_return": 0.0707,
        "worst_return": -0.068884,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.001401,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.048555,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003148,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.165405,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.102596,
        "sufficient": false
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      },
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      },
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      },
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -0.518489,
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        "energy": 39.643428,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 277684.35,
        "trend": 173.41648,
        "fair_value": 140.789481,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 271374.15,
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        "fair_value": 141.319722,
        "relative_strength": -0.373972,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 50.207957,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 183.785,
        "volume": 223844,
        "typical_volume": 269601.3,
        "trend": 174.50187,
        "fair_value": 141.824057,
        "relative_strength": -0.607402,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.553683,
        "energy": 43.842751,
        "activity_lines": [
          184.449667,
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          181.190012,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 182.37,
        "volume": 241360,
        "typical_volume": 261586.05,
        "trend": 174.852033,
        "fair_value": 142.311134,
        "relative_strength": -0.782048,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.683977,
        "energy": 38.990165,
        "activity_lines": [
          183.850667,
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          181.744518,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 184.6,
        "volume": 191160,
        "typical_volume": 248924.2,
        "trend": 175.340925,
        "fair_value": 142.828137,
        "relative_strength": -0.649687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.483341,
        "energy": 40.459293,
        "activity_lines": [
          184.171,
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          182.432693,
          178.994343
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 191.62,
        "volume": 199736,
        "typical_volume": 247522.05,
        "trend": 175.984485,
        "fair_value": 143.392125,
        "relative_strength": -0.359186,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.248571,
        "energy": 52.394343,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}