{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e761e9a-af10-4332-be3d-dec79f717659", "symbol": "900938", "name": "HNA Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.605, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 21.447, "architecture_energy": 28.555, "architecture_maturity": 15.831, "architecture_confidence": 58.302, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.55, "rotation_up": 49.38, "upward_expansion": 37.19, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 14.35, "downward_expansion": 43.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2202, 0.213589, 0.208473, 0.213021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.221127, "distance_from_trend": 0.062736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.191941, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.103369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004274, "excess_performance": 0.047477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056032, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163441, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.495107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11151076, "relative_activity": 3.857949, "balance": 1.495107, "dry_up": 2.693361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057977, "annualized_volatility": 0.279921, "from_high_reference": -0.216667, "from_low_reference": 0.279768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.221127, "fair_value_reference": 0.191941, "structural_low": 0.183627, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014197, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000947, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.15534, "worst_return": -0.114458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057681, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.045918, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.385057, "worst_return": -0.26506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.146119, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.093928, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.534483, "worst_return": -0.216867, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-24", 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"relative_strength": -10.610014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.296371, "energy": 21.46018, "activity_lines": [ 0.206543, 0.20174, 0.206641, 0.21469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.209, "volume": 5924508, "typical_volume": 2042849.65, "trend": 0.224427, "fair_value": 0.19123, "relative_strength": -8.829177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.355213, "energy": 20.09306, "activity_lines": [ 0.208091, 0.20359, 0.206114, 0.213624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.208, "volume": 8676392, "typical_volume": 2350347.85, "trend": 0.223127, "fair_value": 0.191428, "relative_strength": -10.068158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.243005, "energy": 19.234277, "activity_lines": [ 0.208667, 0.205137, 0.205657, 0.212564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.217, "volume": 5387750, "typical_volume": 2545782.55, "trend": 0.221794, "fair_value": 0.191653, "relative_strength": -6.325566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.328969, "energy": 14.408389, "activity_lines": [ 0.212, 0.208003, 0.206163, 0.212169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 11151076, "typical_volume": 2890415.5, "trend": 0.221127, "fair_value": 0.191941, "relative_strength": -1.103369, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 21.447098, "energy": 28.555473, "activity_lines": [ 0.2202, 0.213589, 0.208473, 0.213021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }