{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e7aa2df-cd53-40d4-b7fe-50b7e72afbd4", "symbol": "6125", "name": "Kenmec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.843, "architecture_energy": 62.498, "architecture_maturity": 58.95, "architecture_confidence": 84.816, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.37, "rotation_up": 10.31, "upward_expansion": 13.14, "deceleration": 38.43, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 86.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.18645, 51.651924, 54.892283, 55.942237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.599998, "trend_reference": 58.100231, "distance_from_trend": -0.11188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.722664, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290455, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.78932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186726, "excess_performance": -0.628098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290455, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.437893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94445, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2971743, "relative_activity": 0.321849, "balance": 0.94445, "dry_up": 0.427198, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136383, "annualized_volatility": 0.45773, "from_high_reference": -0.422053, "from_low_reference": 0.229501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.100231, "fair_value_reference": 72.722664, "structural_low": 41.96823, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.032631, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010152, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.168317, "worst_return": -0.205975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.068908, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.056374, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.413005, "worst_return": -0.297922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.124163, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.054969, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.333762, "worst_return": -0.347639, 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55.535316, 58.050051, 57.991005, 58.809375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.292873, "volume": 4129005, "typical_volume": 9899423.0, "trend": 60.302934, "fair_value": 73.315886, "relative_strength": -46.850506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.574329, "energy": 62.168729, "activity_lines": [ 52.902404, 56.230588, 57.194438, 58.064352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.541752, "volume": 5633952, "typical_volume": 9819386.15, "trend": 59.418697, "fair_value": 73.008168, "relative_strength": -50.438149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.331861, "energy": 75.335333, "activity_lines": [ 49.596416, 53.707455, 55.987804, 57.047501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.400002, "volume": 3043148, "typical_volume": 9314416.8, "trend": 58.7129, "fair_value": 72.81221, "relative_strength": -45.362637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.55943, "energy": 70.540599, "activity_lines": [ 48.701698, 52.328592, 55.312677, 56.401134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 51.599998, "volume": 2971743, "typical_volume": 9233331.5, "trend": 58.100231, "fair_value": 72.722664, "relative_strength": -43.78932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.84291, "energy": 62.498064, "activity_lines": [ 49.18645, 51.651924, 54.892283, 55.942237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }