{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e7d2423-dd7c-4c52-abf9-be973e7bb77f", "symbol": "PFV", "name": "Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.765, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.97, "architecture_energy": 22.582, "architecture_maturity": 26.678, "architecture_confidence": 69.661, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.31, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 6.46, "deceleration": 56.16, "rotation_down": 41.59, "downward_expansion": 68.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.232002, 164.259585, 165.05302, 165.270088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 164.800003, "trend_reference": 165.303523, "distance_from_trend": -0.003046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.967761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.642977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003628, "excess_performance": -0.068267, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015919, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21808, "relative_activity": 2.638628, "balance": 1.642314, "dry_up": 1.597327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017525, "annualized_volatility": 0.060917, "from_high_reference": -0.022539, "from_low_reference": 0.07013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 165.303523, "fair_value_reference": 149.967761, "structural_low": 160.991416, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018331, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.033766, "worst_return": -0.209174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.111479, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.016753, "worst_return": -0.211927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07158, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044304, "worst_return": -0.293782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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163.600006, "volume": 7495, "typical_volume": 8562.3, "trend": 164.93019, "fair_value": 149.604062, "relative_strength": -1.868509, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.418474, "energy": 18.60937, "activity_lines": [ 164.193335, 164.40161, 165.30355, 165.363876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 163.8, "volume": 15139, "typical_volume": 7656.85, "trend": 165.123523, "fair_value": 149.778053, "relative_strength": -3.73032, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.788185, "energy": 19.061383, "activity_lines": [ 164.037525, 164.210597, 165.126856, 165.29096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 21808, "typical_volume": 8264.9, "trend": 165.303523, "fair_value": 149.967761, "relative_strength": -5.642977, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.969762, "energy": 22.58221, "activity_lines": [ 164.232002, 164.259585, 165.05302, 165.270088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }