{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4e7d3d06-3d04-40a4-9210-134b8c6eedd7", "symbol": "CU2U", "name": "Amundi PEA MSCI USA ESG Selection UCITS ETF - USD", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.114, "architecture_energy": 57.689, "architecture_maturity": 66.91, "architecture_confidence": 86.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 47.34, "upward_expansion": 72.22, "deceleration": 91.47, "rotation_down": 29.82, "downward_expansion": 19.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 935.619352, 935.016079, 924.400191, 901.683113 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 963.580017, "trend_reference": 876.878666, "distance_from_trend": 0.098875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 735.176024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310679, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.083911, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151913, "excess_performance": 0.098601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060839, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.455326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36, "relative_activity": 0.09397, "balance": 2.455326, "dry_up": 1.416079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018797, "annualized_volatility": 0.129389, "from_high_reference": -0.003279, "from_low_reference": 0.260844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 876.878666, "fair_value_reference": 735.176024, "structural_low": 768.455688, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000444, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.070928, "worst_return": -0.060075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054469, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.048156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103865, "worst_return": -0.104858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.086299, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143453, "worst_return": 0.014499, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.079003, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.311868, "energy": 39.594479, "activity_lines": [ 923.672018, 929.539621, 917.538114, 895.852891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 963.580017, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 383.1, "trend": 876.878666, "fair_value": 735.176024, "relative_strength": 6.083911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.113732, "energy": 57.688856, "activity_lines": [ 935.619352, 935.016079, 924.400191, 901.683113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }